The model missed the final outcome (Újpest win 4–2).
The model had projected Debreceni VSC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Debreceni VSC Újpest ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Újpest | 33.3% | 41.6% | -8.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.2% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Debreceni VSC | 37.1% | 30.2% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Újpest's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Újpest win 4–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Újpest. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Debreceni VSC; match finished Újpest
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Debreceni VSC by 8.3 percentage points (45.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Újpest 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Debreceni VSC 37.0%
- xG · Újpest 1.26 — Debreceni VSC 1.34
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Újpest 2.29 · Draw 3.38 · Debreceni VSC 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Újpest 41.6% · Draw 28.2% · Debreceni VSC 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Újpest 2.29 · Draw 3.38 · Debreceni VSC 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Újpest 41.6% · Draw 28.2% · Debreceni VSC 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Újpest win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
NB I — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Újpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza Spartacus | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Újpest | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Paks | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza Spartacus | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
