The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Clyde at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Clyde Menggambar ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling Albion | 31.9% | 24.2% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.8% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Clyde | 38.5% | 53.9% | -15.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Clyde's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Clyde than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Clyde; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Clyde by 15.4 percentage points (53.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stirling Albion 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Clyde 38.5%
- xG · Stirling Albion 1.23 — Clyde 1.37
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stirling Albion 3.78 · Draw 4.20 · Clyde 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Stirling Albion 24.2% · Draw 21.8% · Clyde 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Stirling Albion 3.78 · Draw 4.20 · Clyde 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Stirling Albion 24.2% · Draw 21.8% · Clyde 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
Dapatkan Prediksi Premium untuk Stirling Albion & Clyde!
Buka analisis mendalam, tips taruhan eksklusif, dan prakiraan pertandingan dengan layanan langganan premium kami.
Berlangganan Sekarang
Liga Dua Skotlandia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Stranraer | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Spartans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Elgin City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Forfar Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Edinburgh City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kelty Hearts | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Elgin City | 8 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Spartans | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 12 |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 8 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 8 | Annan Athletic | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
