The model missed the final outcome (Aston Villa win 2–3).
The model had projected Tottenham Hotspur at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 42.1% | 49.8% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 31.6% | 26.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Aston Villa | 26.3% | 24.1% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Tottenham Hotspur's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.1%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Aston Villa win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Tottenham Hotspur. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tottenham Hotspur by 7.7 percentage points (49.8% vs model 42.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tottenham Hotspur 42.2% · Draw 31.6% · Aston Villa 26.2%
- xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.29 — Aston Villa 0.97
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tottenham Hotspur 1.95 · Draw 3.73 · Aston Villa 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Tottenham Hotspur 49.8% · Draw 26.1% · Aston Villa 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tottenham Hotspur 1.95 · Draw 3.73 · Aston Villa 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Tottenham Hotspur 49.8% · Draw 26.1% · Aston Villa 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Liga Premier Inggris — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Brentford | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 12 | Hull City | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Fulham | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 20 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| # | TIM | Main | xG | xGC | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 4.9 | 1.0 | +3.9 | 12 |
| 2 | Brentford | 5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | +3.6 | 9 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | +2.8 | 5 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | +2.6 | 15 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 5 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | +0.1 | 7 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 |
| 11 | Leeds United | 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 9 |
| 12 | Coventry | 5 | 1.6 | 2.5 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 13 | Everton | 5 | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1.0 | 9 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | -1.1 | 8 |
| 15 | Hull City | 5 | 2.0 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 8 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | -1.3 | 3 |
| 17 | Fulham | 5 | 2.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 | 2 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 6 |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 1.5 | 4.7 | -3.2 | 2 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 5 | 0.6 | 4.7 | -4.1 | 4 |
