The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Dugopolje at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Dugopolje Menggambar ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dugopolje | 35.6% | 49.2% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Kustošija | 34.7% | 24.8% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Dugopolje's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Dugopolje than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Dugopolje; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dugopolje by 13.5 percentage points (49.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dugopolje 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Kustošija 34.7%
- xG · Dugopolje 1.31 — Kustošija 1.29
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dugopolje 1.86 · Draw 3.51 · Kustošija 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Dugopolje 49.2% · Draw 26.1% · Kustošija 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dugopolje 1.86 · Draw 3.51 · Kustošija 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Dugopolje 49.2% · Draw 26.1% · Kustošija 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
First NL Kroasia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladost Ždralovi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Sesvete | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Jadran LP | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | HNK Cibalia | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Karlovac 1919 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Segesta Sisak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Dugopolje | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Orijent 1919 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Dubrava Zagreb | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Opatija | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Kustošija | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sesvete | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Jadran LP | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Karlovac 1919 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Opatija | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Dugopolje | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mladost Ždralovi | 5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Orijent 1919 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Segesta Sisak | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Dubrava Zagreb | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | HNK Cibalia | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | Kustošija | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
