The model missed the final outcome (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 1–2).
The model had projected Neuchâtel Xamax FCS at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Neuchâtel Xamax FCS Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neuchâtel Xamax FCS | 36.6% | 31.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 33.8% | 42.0% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Neuchâtel Xamax FCS; match finished Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Neuchâtel Xamax FCS by 8.2 percentage points (44.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 33.8%
- xG · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 1.33 — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.27
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 3.06 · Draw 3.54 · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 31.1% · Draw 26.9% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 3.06 · Draw 3.54 · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 31.1% · Draw 26.9% · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Challenge League — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchâtel Xamax FCS | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil-Jona | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | FC Wil 1900 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Kriens | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Rapperswil-Jona | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Wil 1900 | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 6 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Neuchâtel Xamax FCS | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
