AI correctly predicted the Smiltene win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Smiltene Smiltene ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 40.6% | 47.3% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.6% | 22.6% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Rēzekne FA | 31.8% | 30.1% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Smiltene's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Smiltene win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Smiltene. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Smiltene higher (47.3% vs model 40.6%, 6.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Smiltene win 1–0).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Smiltene 40.6% · Draw 27.6% · Rēzekne FA 31.8%
- xG · Smiltene 1.36 — Rēzekne FA 1.24
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Smiltene 1.91 · Draw 4.00 · Rēzekne FA 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Smiltene 47.3% · Draw 22.6% · Rēzekne FA 30.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Smiltene 1.91 · Draw 4.00 · Rēzekne FA 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Smiltene 47.3% · Draw 22.6% · Rēzekne FA 30.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Smiltene win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
1. Liga Latvia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Skanste | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 15 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 12 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 20 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 20 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 20 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 25 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 20 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 19 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
