The model missed the final outcome (Logan Lightning win 4–1).
The model had projected St George Willawong at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 St George Willawong Logan Lightning ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Lightning | 33.3% | 55.8% | -22.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.4% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| St George Willawong | 37.1% | 24.8% | +12.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Logan Lightning's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 22.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Logan Lightning win 4–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned St George Willawong; match finished Logan Lightning
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on St George Willawong by 22.5 percentage points (59.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Logan Lightning 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · St George Willawong 37.0%
- xG · Logan Lightning 1.26 — St George Willawong 1.34
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Logan Lightning 1.64 · Draw 4.72 · St George Willawong 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Logan Lightning 55.8% · Draw 19.4% · St George Willawong 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Logan Lightning 1.64 · Draw 4.72 · St George Willawong 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Logan Lightning 55.8% · Draw 19.4% · St George Willawong 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 06:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Logan Lightning win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
Dapatkan Prediksi Premium untuk Logan Lightning & St George Willawong!
Buka analisis mendalam, tips taruhan eksklusif, dan prakiraan pertandingan dengan layanan langganan premium kami.
Berlangganan Sekarang
Queensland Premier League — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich Knights | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture FC | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star FC | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 52 | 18 | +34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 37 |
| 4 | Caboolture FC | 22 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Redlands United | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 6 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 30 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 27 |
| 8 | Robina City | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 | Ipswich Knights | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 35 |
| 10 | North Star FC | 22 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | Capalaba FC | 22 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 11 |
| 12 | St George Willawong | 22 | 13 | 52 | -39 | 13 |
