The model missed the final outcome (Nõmme United II win 2–3).
The model had projected Nõmme Kalju II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Nõmme Kalju II Nõmme United II ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme Kalju II | 36.1% | 27.3% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.7% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Nõmme United II | 34.2% | 51.0% | -16.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Nõmme United II's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 16.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Nõmme United II win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Nõmme United II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Nõmme Kalju II by 16.8 percentage points (52.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
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Sep 21, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Nõmme United II 34.2%
- xG · Nõmme Kalju II 1.32 — Nõmme United II 1.28
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nõmme Kalju II 3.18 · Draw 4.00 · Nõmme United II 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 27.3% · Draw 21.7% · Nõmme United II 51.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nõmme Kalju II 3.18 · Draw 4.00 · Nõmme United II 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 27.3% · Draw 21.7% · Nõmme United II 51.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nõmme United II win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Esiliiga A — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 22 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 81 | 39 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | Flora II | 30 | 72 | 53 | +19 | 48 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 60 | 55 | +5 | 41 |
| 4 | Viimsi | 30 | 56 | 31 | +25 | 50 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 37 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 36 |
| 7 | Elva | 30 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 48 |
| 8 | Maardu | 28 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 22 |
