The model missed the final outcome (Middlesbrough win 0–3).
The model had projected Millwall at 48.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Millwall Middlesbrough ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 0-3 ✖ Salah
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.53) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Middlesbrough win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Millwall 1.54 — Middlesbrough 0.99
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Aug 16, 2025 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Middlesbrough win · 0–3
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pending
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
EFL Championship — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby County | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea City | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 52 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford United | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester City | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 97 | 45 | +52 | 95 |
| 2 | Southampton | 46 | 82 | 56 | +26 | 80 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town | 46 | 80 | 47 | +33 | 84 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 72 | 47 | +25 | 80 |
| 5 | Hull City | 46 | 70 | 66 | +4 | 73 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 46 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 71 |
| 7 | Derby County | 46 | 67 | 59 | +8 | 69 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 46 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 60 |
| 9 | Millwall | 46 | 64 | 49 | +15 | 83 |
| 10 | Norwich City | 46 | 63 | 56 | +7 | 65 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 61 | 73 | -12 | 58 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 59 | 59 | 0 | 62 |
| 13 | Leicester City | 46 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 46 |
| 14 | Birmingham City | 46 | 57 | 56 | +1 | 64 |
| 15 | Swansea City | 46 | 57 | 59 | -2 | 64 |
| 16 | Preston | 46 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 60 |
| 17 | Watford | 46 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 57 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 46 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 55 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 46 | 49 | 64 | -15 | 55 |
| 20 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 51 |
| 21 | Oxford United | 46 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 47 |
| 22 | Charlton | 46 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 53 |
| 23 | Blackburn Rovers | 46 | 42 | 56 | -14 | 52 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 29 | 89 | -60 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | xG | xGC | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 84.9 | 49.6 | +35.3 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 46 | 75.5 | 44.3 | +31.2 | 84 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 69.5 | 41.4 | +28.1 | 80 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 76.3 | 57.0 | +19.3 | 80 |
| 5 | Sheffield United | 46 | 70.5 | 56.8 | +13.7 | 60 |
| 6 | Birmingham City | 46 | 61.5 | 48.2 | +13.3 | 64 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 57.0 | 46.3 | +10.7 | 51 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 62.2 | 57.2 | +5.0 | 83 |
| 9 | Watford | 46 | 55.1 | 53.3 | +1.8 | 57 |
| 10 | Derby County | 46 | 56.0 | 54.6 | +1.4 | 69 |
| 11 | Blackburn Rovers | 46 | 53.4 | 54.5 | -1.1 | 52 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 54.3 | 55.6 | -1.3 | 58 |
| 13 | Norwich City | 46 | 60.7 | 63.9 | -3.2 | 65 |
| 14 | Swansea City | 46 | 51.1 | 56.0 | -4.9 | 64 |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 46 | 46.9 | 52.7 | -5.8 | 55 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 46 | 55.8 | 62.5 | -6.7 | 71 |
| 17 | Oxford United | 46 | 51.6 | 58.3 | -6.7 | 47 |
| 18 | Bristol City | 46 | 55.1 | 62.7 | -7.6 | 62 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 46 | 54.2 | 64.8 | -10.6 | 46 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 46 | 50.2 | 63.2 | -13.0 | 55 |
| 21 | Charlton | 46 | 46.2 | 60.7 | -14.5 | 53 |
| 22 | Preston | 46 | 52.8 | 68.0 | -15.2 | 60 |
| 23 | Hull City | 46 | 58.8 | 78.3 | -19.5 | 73 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 39.7 | 89.4 | -49.7 | 0 |