Prediksi / Sepak Bola / Italia. Serie A / AS Roma vs Fiorentina

Audit Prediksi: AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediksi, Odds & Tips Taruhan AI

AS Roma AS Roma
May 04, 2026 - 18:45
4 1.30
0 1.08
xG Accuracy: 35%
Fiorentina Fiorentina

AI correctly predicted the AS Roma win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu

Nilai prediksi B-

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.

  • Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 sasaran) ✖ Salah
  • Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Benar
  • 1X2 AS Roma AS Roma ✔ Benar
  • Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Salah

Model vs Pasar Penutupan

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices AS Roma higher than the statistical model.

Kesenjangan probabilitas terbesar: AS Roma -20.0 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasar Perbedaan Sinyal
AS Roma 39.9% 59.8% -20.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.0% 22.1% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Fiorentina 29.2% 18.0% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates AS Roma's win probability at 59.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (AS Roma win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about AS Roma than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced AS Roma higher (59.9% vs model 39.9%, 20.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (AS Roma win 4–0).

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Garis Waktu Prediksi

Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AS Roma 39.9% · Draw 31.0% · Fiorentina 29.2%
    • xG · AS Roma 1.30 — Fiorentina 1.08
  2. May 03, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · AS Roma 1.61 · Draw 4.35 · Fiorentina 5.34
    • Implied 1X2 · AS Roma 59.8% · Draw 22.1% · Fiorentina 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AS Roma 1.61 · Draw 4.35 · Fiorentina 5.34
    • Implied 1X2 · AS Roma 59.8% · Draw 22.1% · Fiorentina 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AS Roma win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Cuplikan Sejarah

Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.

Putusan sejarah: Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah Monitor
Hasil Validated
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
Keandalan Prediksi 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 09:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1692469

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AS Roma win · AS Roma 4–0 Fiorentina
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Tinjau FAQ

Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.

Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.

Prediksi Terkait

Lihat Jadwal Serie A Pertandingan Pantau AS Roma Prediksi Pertandingan Berikutnya Pantau Fiorentina Prediksi Pertandingan Berikutnya Lihat Prediksi Sepak Bola Hari Ini

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Berlangganan Sekarang
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Serie A Serie A — Klasemen
# TIM Main M S K Poin
1 Inter Milan 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Hellas Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# TIM Main Gol Kebob +/- Poin
1 Inter Milan 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Hellas Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# TIM Main xG xGC +/- Poin
1 Inter Milan 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Hellas Verona 38 35.7 50.4 -14.7 21
16 Cagliari 38 38.6 53.8 -15.2 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38