The model missed the final outcome (CSKA Sofia win 2–4).
The model had projected Levski Sofia at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Levski Sofia CSKA Sofia ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 36.1% | 50.6% | -14.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| CSKA Sofia | 34.2% | 21.7% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Levski Sofia's win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah CSKA Sofia win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Levski Sofia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Levski Sofia; match finished CSKA Sofia
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Levski Sofia by 14.5 percentage points (50.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Levski Sofia 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · CSKA Sofia 34.2%
- xG · Levski Sofia 1.32 — CSKA Sofia 1.28
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Levski Sofia 2.01 · Draw 3.25 · CSKA Sofia 3.67
- Implied 1X2 · Levski Sofia 46.2% · Draw 28.6% · CSKA Sofia 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Levski Sofia 1.83 · Draw 3.35 · CSKA Sofia 4.26
- Implied 1X2 · Levski Sofia 50.6% · Draw 27.6% · CSKA Sofia 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
27/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CSKA Sofia win · Levski Sofia 2–4 CSKA Sofia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1985,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0127,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Levski Sofia",
"sort_key": 5210.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"alert_team": "CSKA Sofia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.5,
"hero_label": "Levski Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 50.6,
"market_team": "Levski Sofia",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Levski Sofia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levski Sofia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levski Sofia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levski Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Levski Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553077 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "10/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"steam_team": "CSKA Sofia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levski Sofia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levski Sofia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levski Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Levski Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553077 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Levski Sofia 1.32 xG vs CSKA Sofia 1.28 \u2192 Levski Sofia 36.1%",
"Market: Levski Sofia ~50.6% implied",
"Market Drift: CSKA Sofia odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Levski Sofia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.5,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Levski Sofia",
"market_prob": 50.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.5,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "CSKA Sofia",
"market_prob": 21.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.9,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Levski Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 50.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "CSKA Sofia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Levski Sofia\u0027s win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Levski Sofia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Levski Sofia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Levski Sofia 1.32 xG vs CSKA Sofia 1.28 \u2192 Levski Sofia 36.1%",
"Market: Levski Sofia ~50.6% implied",
"Market Drift: CSKA Sofia odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Levski Sofia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.5,
"hero_label": "Levski Sofia",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "CSKA Sofia odds lengthened \u2191 +5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, CSKA Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Levski Sofia than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from CSKA Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Levski Sofia than the current fair estimate.",
"However, CSKA Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from CSKA Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Levski Sofia more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, CSKA Sofia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/14) supports the current market view on CSKA Sofia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Levski Sofia",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Levski Sofia higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.5,
"edge_pp": -14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Levski Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 50.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.0,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.5,
"edge_pp": 12.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CSKA Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 21.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from CSKA Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Levski Sofia (50.6%).",
"However, CSKA Sofia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.9%, 10/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Levski Sofia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on CSKA Sofia (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.26",
"3.83",
"3.40"
],
"display": "3.85 \u2192 2.92 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"pick_team": "CSKA Sofia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
4.26,
3.67,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,12.3 56.0,13.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.26"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/14 sportsbooks on CSKA Sofia",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "CSKA Sofia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "CSKA Sofia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "CSKA Sofia",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "CSKA Sofia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cska-sofia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CSKA Sofia",
"away_team_id": 853,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/853.webp",
"away_team_name": "CSKA Sofia",
"away_team_public_id": "3Pa2cc1zTK6607",
"away_team_slug": "cska-sofia",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1553077,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Levski Sofia",
"home_team_id": 646,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/646.webp",
"home_team_name": "Levski Sofia",
"home_team_public_id": "2ZDELT0aPzSZAS",
"home_team_slug": "levski-sofia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "levski-sofia",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Super Cup",
"league_id": 656,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/656.webp",
"league_name": "Super Cup",
"league_public_id": "1uodQlHu7AOuyc",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 15:30:00",
"public_id": "5XLdD1BeLiTRDd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sofia",
"venue_name": "Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 4.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": 0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.2174,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2174,
"draw": 0.2765,
"home": 0.5061
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2377
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2909,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0059,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2174,
"draw": 0.2765,
"home": 0.5061
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2823
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4693,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0681,
"ev": -0.1985,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2174,
"draw": 0.2765,
"home": 0.5061
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.438
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.26,
"edge": 0.1077,
"ev": 0.4586,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0018,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1855,
"ev": -0.3395,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2368,
"alpha_yes": 0.2152,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.98,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.059,
"edge_yes": 0.059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1071,
"ev_yes": 0.0791,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0579,
"implied_no": 0.514,
"implied_yes": 0.486,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2368,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5143,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5002
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4985
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.5002,
"p_final_yes": 0.4985,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1726,
"alpha_under": 0.2373,
"best_over_odd": 2.32,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.059,
"edge_under": -0.059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1182,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.045,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0893,
"implied_over": 0.423,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4241,
"implied_under": 0.577,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5759,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1726,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2373,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5622
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4341,
"p_final_under": 0.5622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4586,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1182,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1182,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levski Sofia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levski Sofia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levski Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Levski Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553077 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Levski Sofia).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0681,
"ev": -0.1985,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Levski Sofia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.4857,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2368,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5143,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5002
},
"p_final": 0.4985,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0579,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4985
}
},
"edge": 0.059,
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1726,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"market_prob": 0.4241,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1726,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2373,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5622
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.059,
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.423,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553077,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1182,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.423,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.423,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CSKA Sofia",
"home": "Levski Sofia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04311,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553077,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T15:29:13.737386+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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