AI correctly predicted the CA Estudiantes win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 CA Estudiantes CA Estudiantes ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | 26.2% | 30.4% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.9% | 33.8% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| CA Estudiantes | 44.8% | 35.8% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates CA Estudiantes's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (CA Estudiantes win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CA Estudiantes.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- CA Estudiantes attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CA Estudiantes more conservatively (35.8% vs model 44.8%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CA Estudiantes win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Telmo 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · CA Estudiantes 44.8%
- xG · San Telmo 1.10 — CA Estudiantes 1.50
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Telmo 3.14 · Draw 2.82 · CA Estudiantes 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · San Telmo 30.4% · Draw 33.8% · CA Estudiantes 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Telmo 3.14 · Draw 2.82 · CA Estudiantes 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · San Telmo 30.4% · Draw 33.8% · CA Estudiantes 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CA Estudiantes win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
55/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CA Estudiantes win · San Telmo 0–1 CA Estudiantes
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0462,
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},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
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"tier": "best"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"alert_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
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"hero_edge_pp": 8.99,
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"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Estudiantes at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Estudiantes as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Estudiantes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1919,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.99,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.5,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.1,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.5,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.10 \u00b7 Away xG 1.50 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +11%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"steam_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Estudiantes at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Estudiantes as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Estudiantes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1919,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Telmo 1.10 xG vs CA Estudiantes 1.50 \u2192 CA Estudiantes 44.8%",
"Market: CA Estudiantes ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: CA Estudiantes odds \u2191 +4.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CA Estudiantes, but the market has moved away from CA Estudiantes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob": 26.22,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob": 30.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob": 28.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.99,
"fair_prob": 44.83,
"label": "CA Estudiantes",
"market_prob": 35.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.68,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.14,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.14,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.83,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "CA Estudiantes",
"market_prob_pct": 35.84,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "CA Estudiantes"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates CA Estudiantes\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CA Estudiantes",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Telmo 1.10 xG vs CA Estudiantes 1.50 \u2192 CA Estudiantes 44.8%",
"Market: CA Estudiantes ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: CA Estudiantes odds \u2191 +4.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CA Estudiantes, but the market has moved away from CA Estudiantes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.99,
"hero_label": "CA Estudiantes",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "CA Estudiantes odds lengthened \u2191 +4.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CA Estudiantes.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on CA Estudiantes.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CA Estudiantes.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on CA Estudiantes."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CA Estudiantes.",
"Recent line movement on CA Estudiantes (\u2191 +4.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on CA Estudiantes."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.9 pp (at 44.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.9,
"max_prob_pct": 44.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CA Estudiantes",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.0,
"lead": "The model rates CA Estudiantes considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.14,
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob_pct": 30.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.85,
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.99,
"edge_pp": 8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.83,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CA Estudiantes",
"market_prob_pct": 35.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on CA Estudiantes.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CA Estudiantes (35.8%).",
"CA Estudiantes odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.1%, 7/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CA Estudiantes, Market \u2192 CA Estudiantes, while CA Estudiantes odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.59,
"closing_odds": 2.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.59,
"entry_odds": 2.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on CA Estudiantes (4.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.66",
"2.56",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.66 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"pick_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.66"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.66,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on CA Estudiantes",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Market moved away from CA Estudiantes while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "CA Estudiantes",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "CA Estudiantes",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "CA Estudiantes",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ca-estudiantes",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CA Estudiantes",
"away_team_id": 1936,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1936.webp",
"away_team_name": "CA Estudiantes",
"away_team_public_id": "2n8KP51FMJLUIu",
"away_team_slug": "ca-estudiantes",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498826,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "San Telmo",
"home_team_id": 1932,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1932.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Telmo",
"home_team_public_id": "3NPkJeKgZIg1NF",
"home_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:30:00",
"public_id": "2JTSvmg8Rjmai2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dock Sud",
"venue_name": "Estadio Osvaldo Baletto"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3894,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0349,
"ev": 0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3584,
"draw": 0.338,
"home": 0.3036
},
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"p_final": 0.3933
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4173,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3584,
"draw": 0.338,
"home": 0.3036
},
"model_prob": 0.2896,
"p_final": 0.3178
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.3036,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3584,
"draw": 0.338,
"home": 0.3036
},
"model_prob": 0.2623,
"p_final": 0.292
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0722,
"ev": 0.1919,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.4481
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.065,
"ev": -0.1832,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": -0.0562,
"ev": -0.1765,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.2623
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2026,
"alpha_yes": 0.1474,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1214,
"edge_yes": 0.1214,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2451,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"ev_yes": 0.2709,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0389,
"implied_no": 0.5874,
"implied_yes": 0.4126,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2026,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5624
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.431
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5624,
"p_final_yes": 0.431,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1378,
"alpha_under": 0.1895,
"best_over_odd": 3.03,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.815,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1568,
"edge_under": -0.1568,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4605,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0224,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1233,
"implied_over": 0.3252,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3257,
"implied_under": 0.6748,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6743,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3473
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1895,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.6743,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6446
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3473,
"p_final_under": 0.6446,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4605,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4605,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Estudiantes at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Estudiantes as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Estudiantes",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CA Estudiantes, but the model still strongly favours CA Estudiantes.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1919,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4481,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.4
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0349,
"ev": 0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CA Estudiantes"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4132,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2026,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5624
},
"p_final": 0.431,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0389,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.431
}
},
"edge": 0.1214,
"ev": 0.2709,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0215,
"market_prob": 0.3257,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3473
},
"p_final": 0.3473,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0224,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1895,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.6743,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6446
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1568,
"ev": 0.4605,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498826,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4605,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4481,
"draw": 0.2896,
"home": 0.2623
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2709,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2709,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CA Estudiantes",
"home": "San Telmo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.155373,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4605,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1919,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498826,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T18:29:15.114881+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera Nacional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
