The model missed the final outcome (Fløya win 2–4).
The model had projected Strømsgodset II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Strømsgodset II Fløya ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strømsgodset II | 36.1% | 42.8% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Fløya | 34.2% | 38.3% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Fløya win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Strømsgodset II by 10.7 percentage points (25.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Fløya 34.2%
- xG · Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Fløya 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 2.08 · Draw 4.70 · Fløya 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 42.8% · Draw 18.9% · Fløya 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Strømsgodset II 2.08 · Draw 4.70 · Fløya 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Strømsgodset II 42.8% · Draw 18.9% · Fløya 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fløya win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
46/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fløya win · Strømsgodset II 2–4 Fløya
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e5344b617d3960bfed98b2bc6fd27bb243dac44f9ab7ea3d8b9bc395b5860f28",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Fl\u00f8ya and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"winner_name": "Fl\u00f8ya"
},
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"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"overround": 12.5,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"home_played": 19,
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"pick": "No",
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
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"prob": 8.3
},
{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II or Fl\u00f8ya",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fl\u00f8ya",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.8,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 39.1,
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"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
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"odds": 4.7
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 18.92,
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:50:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:30:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": -6.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.92,
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{
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.5,
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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"top5": [
{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"p_final": 0.2424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.006,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4409,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -44.1,
"text": "-44.1%"
},
"ev_under": 1.1497,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 115.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11034.73,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
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"consensus_odds": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2369,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0169,
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"model_prob": 0.455,
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},
"p_final": 0.2544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.8,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0169,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
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"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.7631,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7268
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.82,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 82.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.9,
"text": "-31.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.82,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10888.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.026,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"sort_key": 1793.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"market_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011497,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011497,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.32 xG vs Fl\u00f8ya 1.28 \u2192 Str\u00f8msgodset II 36.1%",
"Market: Str\u00f8msgodset II ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Str\u00f8msgodset II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Str\u00f8msgodset II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.64,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob": 42.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 18.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"market_prob": 38.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.95,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 29.95,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 75.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 24.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.92,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Str\u00f8msgodset II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Str\u00f8msgodset II 1.32 xG vs Fl\u00f8ya 1.28 \u2192 Str\u00f8msgodset II 36.1%",
"Market: Str\u00f8msgodset II ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Str\u00f8msgodset II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Str\u00f8msgodset II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Str\u00f8msgodset II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"However, Str\u00f8msgodset II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Draw more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Str\u00f8msgodset II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Str\u00f8msgodset II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.7,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.64,
"edge_pp": -6.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.75,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.73,
"edge_pp": 10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.09,
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"market_prob_pct": 38.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Str\u00f8msgodset II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Str\u00f8msgodset II (42.8%).",
"Str\u00f8msgodset II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.28,
"closing_odds": 4.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.28,
"entry_odds": 4.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.08,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.08,
"pick_team": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"away_team_id": 6984,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6984.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"away_team_public_id": "4IQ6TBGI6co8Rc",
"away_team_slug": "flya",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497253,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"home_team_id": 12865,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12865.webp",
"home_team_name": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"home_team_public_id": "22ZWiDcu8UCsLz",
"home_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "strmsgodset-ii",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 5 Na Uy",
"league_id": 778,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/778.webp",
"league_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 5 Na Uy",
"league_public_id": "1fYcfB1EQjXj2e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "38IIleYfywlkL1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1508,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1678,
"best_odd": 4.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.1892,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2072
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4051,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3833,
"draw": 0.1892,
"home": 0.4275
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4005
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0886,
"ev": -0.2056,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.7,
"edge": 0.0839,
"ev": 0.3944,
"implied_prob": 0.2128,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.1198,
"ev": -0.2493,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1665,
"best_no_odd": 4.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2135,
"edge_yes": -0.2135,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.82,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0169,
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1279,
"implied_no": 0.2415,
"implied_yes": 0.7585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.2369,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.7631,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7268
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2544,
"p_final_yes": 0.7268,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0954,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.16,
"best_under_odd": 4.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.15,
"edge_over": -0.2995,
"edge_under": 0.2995,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4409,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1266,
"ev_under": 1.1497,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.006,
"implied_over": 0.7815,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7815,
"implied_under": 0.2185,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2185,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0954,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.7815,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.753
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.753,
"p_final_under": 0.2424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.1497,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1497,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.1497,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011497,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Str\u00f8msgodset II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Str\u00f8msgodset II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Str\u00f8msgodset II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Str\u00f8msgodset II).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.2369,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.865,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.2369,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"p_final": 0.2544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0169,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.7631,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7268
}
},
"edge": 0.2135,
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"market_prob": 0.2185,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0954,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1266,
"implied_prob": 0.7815,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.753
},
"p_final": 0.2424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.006,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.006,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2424
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2995,
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497253,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.1497,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1497,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fl\u00f8ya",
"home": "Str\u00f8msgodset II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.3731,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1669,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497253,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:50:10.286852+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Strømsgodset II & Fløya!
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Đăng ký ngay
3. Division - Bảng 5 Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 49 |
| 2 | Harstad | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Fløya | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 36 |
| 4 | Alta | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Fauske Sprint | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Skjetten | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Lillestrøm II | 20 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | Skjervøy | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 10 | Strømsgodset II | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 12 | Tromsø II | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harstad | 20 | 66 | 31 | +35 | 39 |
| 2 | Lillestrøm II | 20 | 65 | 45 | +20 | 27 |
| 3 | Fauske Sprint | 20 | 58 | 65 | -7 | 31 |
| 4 | Fløya | 20 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 36 |
| 5 | Skedsmo | 21 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 49 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 20 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 | Alta | 20 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 36 |
| 8 | Finnsnes | 21 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 35 |
| 9 | Strømsgodset II | 20 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Tromsø II | 20 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 20 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 23 |
| 12 | Ulfstind | 21 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 14 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 20 | 34 | 67 | -33 | 19 |
| 14 | Skjervøy | 21 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 24 |
