Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
24.97%
Odds adil
4.01
Seri
23.5%
Odds adil
4.26
Lawan Menang
51.53%
Odds adil
1.94
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 9.85%
Odds adil 10.15
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 4.01 | — | |
| Seri | 4.26 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 1.94 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 9.85% | 10.15 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 9.56% | 10.46 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 7.52% | 13.29 |
| 4 | 0-2 | 7.3% | 13.71 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 6.45% | 15.49 |
| 6 | 2-2 | 6.26% | 15.97 |
| 7 | 1-3 | 6.18% | 16.18 |
| 8 | 1-0 | 5.08% | 19.69 |
| 9 | 0-3 | 4.72% | 21.19 |
| 10 | 2-3 | 4.05% | 24.7 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.88%
25.79
|
7.52%
13.29
|
7.3%
13.71
|
4.72%
21.19
|
2.29%
43.7
|
0.89%
112.63
|
| 1 |
5.08%
19.69
|
9.85%
10.15
|
9.56%
10.46
|
6.18%
16.18
|
3.0%
33.36
|
1.16%
85.97
|
| 2 |
3.33%
30.06
|
6.45%
15.49
|
6.26%
15.97
|
4.05%
24.7
|
1.96%
50.93
|
0.76%
131.25
|
| 3 |
1.45%
68.83
|
2.82%
35.48
|
2.73%
36.58
|
1.77%
56.56
|
0.86%
116.63
|
0.33%
300.57
|
| 4 |
0.48%
210.17
|
0.92%
108.34
|
0.9%
111.68
|
0.58%
172.71
|
0.28%
356.13
|
0.11%
917.43
|
| 5 |
0.12%
801.92
|
0.24%
413.56
|
0.23%
426.26
|
0.15%
659.2
|
0.07%
1358.7
|
0.03%
3508.77
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
1.68%
·
Adil:
59.63
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73.02% | 26.98% |
| 1.5 | 37.67% | 62.33% |
| 2.5 | 14.52% | 85.48% |
| 3.5 | 4.41% | 95.59% |
| 4.5 | 1.1% | 98.9% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 85.63% | 14.37% |
| 1.5 | 57.75% | 42.25% |
| 2.5 | 30.71% | 69.29% |
| 3.5 | 13.22% | 86.78% |
| 4.5 | 4.74% | 95.26% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.88% | 25.79 |
| 1 | 12.60% | 7.94 |
| 2 | 20.48% | 4.88 |
| 3 | 22.18% | 4.51 |
| 4 | 18.02% | 5.55 |
| 5+ | 22.83% | 4.38 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 63.04%
Bawah/Under 2.5 36.96%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
24.97%
Seri
23.50%
Lawan Menang
51.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
63.04%
Bawah/Under 2.5
36.96%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
62.52%
Tidak
37.48%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.66% 27.34 | 7.21% 13.87 | 89.13% 1.12 |
| -1.5 | 10.87% 9.2 | — | 89.13% 1.12 |
| -1.0 | 10.87% 9.2 | 14.93% 6.7 | 74.21% 1.35 |
| -0.5 | 25.79% 3.88 | — | 74.21% 1.35 |
| 0 (PK) | 25.79% 3.88 | 22.07% 4.53 | 52.13% 1.92 |
| +0.5 | 47.87% 2.09 | — | 52.13% 1.92 |
| +1.0 | 47.87% 2.09 | 22.11% 4.52 | 30.03% 3.33 |
| +1.5 | 69.97% 1.43 | — | 30.03% 3.33 |
| +2.0 | 69.97% 1.43 | 15.81% 6.32 | 14.22% 7.03 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
