Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
19.26%
Odds adil
5.19
Seri
23.4%
Odds adil
4.27
Lawan Menang
57.34%
Odds adil
1.74
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 10.35%
Odds adil 9.66
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 5.19 | — | |
| Seri | 4.27 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 1.74 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 10.35% | 9.66 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 10.05% | 9.95 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 9.94% | 10.06 |
| 4 | 0-2 | 9.65% | 10.37 |
| 5 | 1-3 | 6.36% | 15.72 |
| 6 | 0-3 | 6.17% | 16.2 |
| 7 | 1-0 | 5.39% | 18.55 |
| 8 | 2-1 | 5.33% | 18.76 |
| 9 | 0-0 | 5.23% | 19.11 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 5.12% | 19.54 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.23%
19.11
|
10.05%
9.95
|
9.65%
10.37
|
6.17%
16.2
|
2.96%
33.74
|
1.14%
87.87
|
| 1 |
5.39%
18.55
|
10.35%
9.66
|
9.94%
10.06
|
6.36%
15.72
|
3.05%
32.76
|
1.17%
85.31
|
| 2 |
2.78%
36.02
|
5.33%
18.76
|
5.12%
19.54
|
3.28%
30.53
|
1.57%
63.61
|
0.6%
165.65
|
| 3 |
0.95%
104.91
|
1.83%
54.64
|
1.76%
56.92
|
1.12%
88.93
|
0.54%
185.29
|
0.21%
482.39
|
| 4 |
0.25%
407.33
|
0.47%
212.18
|
0.45%
221.04
|
0.29%
345.3
|
0.14%
719.42
|
0.05%
1872.66
|
| 5 |
0.05%
1976.28
|
0.1%
1029.87
|
0.09%
1072.96
|
0.06%
1677.85
|
0.03%
3496.5
|
0.01%
9090.91
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
1.45%
·
Adil:
68.87
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 1.5 | 27.53% | 72.47% |
| 2.5 | 8.59% | 91.41% |
| 3.5 | 2.09% | 97.91% |
| 4.5 | 0.41% | 99.59% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 85.34% | 14.66% |
| 1.5 | 57.19% | 42.81% |
| 2.5 | 30.17% | 69.83% |
| 3.5 | 12.87% | 87.13% |
| 4.5 | 4.57% | 95.43% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.23% | 19.11 |
| 1 | 15.44% | 6.48 |
| 2 | 22.77% | 4.39 |
| 3 | 22.39% | 4.47 |
| 4 | 16.52% | 6.05 |
| 5+ | 17.64% | 5.67 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 56.55%
Bawah/Under 2.5 43.45%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
19.26%
Seri
23.40%
Lawan Menang
57.34%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
56.55%
Bawah/Under 2.5
43.45%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
54.87%
Tidak
45.13%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 1.97% 50.71 | 5.12% 19.52 | 92.9% 1.08 |
| -1.5 | 7.1% 14.09 | — | 92.9% 1.08 |
| -1.0 | 7.1% 14.09 | 12.8% 7.81 | 80.1% 1.25 |
| -0.5 | 19.89% 5.03 | — | 80.1% 1.25 |
| 0 (PK) | 19.89% 5.03 | 21.98% 4.55 | 58.13% 1.72 |
| +0.5 | 41.87% 2.39 | — | 58.13% 1.72 |
| +1.0 | 41.87% 2.39 | 23.86% 4.19 | 34.27% 2.92 |
| +1.5 | 65.73% 1.52 | — | 34.27% 2.92 |
| +2.0 | 65.73% 1.52 | 17.8% 5.62 | 16.47% 6.07 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
