Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
16.73%
Odds adil
5.98
Seri
23.11%
Odds adil
4.33
Lawan Menang
60.16%
Odds adil
1.66
Jaringan paling mungkin
0 - 1
Kebarangkalian 11.33%
Odds adil 8.83
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 5.98 | — | |
| Seri | 4.33 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 1.66 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | 11.33% | 8.83 |
| 2 | 0-2 | 10.88% | 9.19 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 10.31% | 9.7 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 9.9% | 10.1 |
| 5 | 0-3 | 6.96% | 14.36 |
| 6 | 1-3 | 6.33% | 15.79 |
| 7 | 0-0 | 5.9% | 16.95 |
| 8 | 1-0 | 5.37% | 18.62 |
| 9 | 2-1 | 4.69% | 21.32 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 4.5% | 22.2 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.9%
16.95
|
11.33%
8.83
|
10.88%
9.19
|
6.96%
14.36
|
3.34%
29.93
|
1.28%
77.94
|
| 1 |
5.37%
18.62
|
10.31%
9.7
|
9.9%
10.1
|
6.33%
15.79
|
3.04%
32.89
|
1.17%
85.64
|
| 2 |
2.44%
40.93
|
4.69%
21.32
|
4.5%
22.2
|
2.88%
34.69
|
1.38%
72.28
|
0.53%
188.22
|
| 3 |
0.74%
134.92
|
1.42%
70.27
|
1.37%
73.2
|
0.87%
114.38
|
0.42%
238.27
|
0.16%
620.35
|
| 4 |
0.17%
593.12
|
0.32%
308.93
|
0.31%
321.75
|
0.2%
502.77
|
0.1%
1047.12
|
0.04%
2724.8
|
| 5 |
0.03%
3257.33
|
0.06%
1697.79
|
0.06%
1766.78
|
0.04%
2762.43
|
0.02%
5747.13
|
0.01%
14925.37
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
1.42%
·
Adil:
70.43
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 59.75% | 40.25% |
| 1.5 | 23.12% | 76.88% |
| 2.5 | 6.45% | 93.55% |
| 3.5 | 1.4% | 98.6% |
| 4.5 | 0.25% | 99.75% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 85.34% | 14.66% |
| 1.5 | 57.19% | 42.81% |
| 2.5 | 30.17% | 69.83% |
| 3.5 | 12.87% | 87.13% |
| 4.5 | 4.57% | 95.43% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.90% | 16.95 |
| 1 | 16.70% | 5.99 |
| 2 | 23.63% | 4.23 |
| 3 | 22.29% | 4.49 |
| 4 | 15.77% | 6.34 |
| 5+ | 15.70% | 6.37 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 53.77%
Bawah/Under 2.5 46.23%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
16.73%
Seri
23.11%
Lawan Menang
60.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
53.77%
Bawah/Under 2.5
46.23%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
50.99%
Tidak
49.01%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 1.41% 70.83 | 4.22% 23.72 | 94.37% 1.06 |
| -1.5 | 5.63% 17.77 | — | 94.37% 1.06 |
| -1.0 | 5.63% 17.77 | 11.65% 8.59 | 82.73% 1.21 |
| -0.5 | 17.27% 5.79 | — | 82.73% 1.21 |
| 0 (PK) | 17.27% 5.79 | 21.69% 4.61 | 61.03% 1.64 |
| +0.5 | 38.97% 2.57 | — | 61.03% 1.64 |
| +1.0 | 38.97% 2.57 | 24.57% 4.07 | 36.46% 2.74 |
| +1.5 | 63.54% 1.57 | — | 36.46% 2.74 |
| +2.0 | 63.54% 1.57 | 18.77% 5.33 | 17.69% 5.65 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
