Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
26.36%
Odds adil
3.79
Seri
24.8%
Odds adil
4.03
Lawan Menang
48.85%
Odds adil
2.05
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 10.78%
Odds adil 9.28
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.79 | — | |
| Seri | 4.03 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.05 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 10.78% | 9.28 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 9.54% | 10.49 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 8.55% | 11.69 |
| 4 | 0-2 | 7.57% | 13.21 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 6.79% | 14.73 |
| 6 | 1-0 | 6.09% | 16.43 |
| 7 | 2-2 | 6.01% | 16.65 |
| 8 | 1-3 | 5.63% | 17.77 |
| 9 | 0-0 | 4.83% | 20.7 |
| 10 | 0-3 | 4.47% | 22.39 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.83%
20.7
|
8.55%
11.69
|
7.57%
13.21
|
4.47%
22.39
|
1.98%
50.61
|
0.7%
142.96
|
| 1 |
6.09%
16.43
|
10.78%
9.28
|
9.54%
10.49
|
5.63%
17.77
|
2.49%
40.17
|
0.88%
113.47
|
| 2 |
3.84%
26.07
|
6.79%
14.73
|
6.01%
16.65
|
3.54%
28.21
|
1.57%
63.76
|
0.56%
180.12
|
| 3 |
1.61%
62.08
|
2.85%
35.07
|
2.52%
39.63
|
1.49%
67.17
|
0.66%
151.79
|
0.23%
428.82
|
| 4 |
0.51%
197.08
|
0.9%
111.35
|
0.79%
125.82
|
0.47%
213.22
|
0.21%
481.93
|
0.07%
1360.54
|
| 5 |
0.13%
781.86
|
0.23%
441.89
|
0.2%
499.25
|
0.12%
846.02
|
0.05%
1912.05
|
0.02%
5405.41
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
1.15%
·
Adil:
86.9
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71.63% | 28.37% |
| 1.5 | 35.89% | 64.11% |
| 2.5 | 13.38% | 86.62% |
| 3.5 | 3.92% | 96.08% |
| 4.5 | 0.94% | 99.06% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82.97% | 17.03% |
| 1.5 | 52.82% | 47.18% |
| 2.5 | 26.14% | 73.86% |
| 3.5 | 10.39% | 89.61% |
| 4.5 | 3.43% | 96.57% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.83% | 20.70 |
| 1 | 14.64% | 6.83 |
| 2 | 22.18% | 4.51 |
| 3 | 22.40% | 4.46 |
| 4 | 16.97% | 5.89 |
| 5+ | 18.98% | 5.27 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 58.35%
Bawah/Under 2.5 41.65%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
26.36%
Seri
24.80%
Lawan Menang
48.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
58.35%
Bawah/Under 2.5
41.65%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
59.43%
Tidak
40.57%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.74% 26.7 | 7.61% 13.14 | 88.64% 1.13 |
| -1.5 | 11.36% 8.81 | — | 88.64% 1.13 |
| -1.0 | 11.36% 8.81 | 15.92% 6.28 | 72.72% 1.38 |
| -0.5 | 27.28% 3.67 | — | 72.72% 1.38 |
| 0 (PK) | 27.28% 3.67 | 23.33% 4.29 | 49.39% 2.02 |
| +0.5 | 50.61% 1.98 | — | 49.39% 2.02 |
| +1.0 | 50.61% 1.98 | 22.37% 4.47 | 27.02% 3.7 |
| +1.5 | 72.98% 1.37 | — | 27.02% 3.7 |
| +2.0 | 72.98% 1.37 | 15.02% 6.66 | 12.0% 8.33 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
