Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
17.5%
Odds adil
5.72
Seri
26.94%
Odds adil
3.71
Lawan Menang
55.57%
Odds adil
1.8
Jaringan paling mungkin
0 - 1
Kebarangkalian 15.33%
Odds adil 6.52
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 5.72 | — | |
| Seri | 3.71 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 1.8 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | 15.33% | 6.52 |
| 2 | 0-2 | 11.96% | 8.36 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 11.65% | 8.58 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 9.09% | 11.0 |
| 6 | 1-0 | 7.47% | 13.39 |
| 7 | 0-3 | 6.22% | 16.08 |
| 8 | 1-3 | 4.73% | 21.16 |
| 9 | 2-1 | 4.43% | 22.59 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 3.45% | 28.96 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.83%
10.18
|
15.33%
6.52
|
11.96%
8.36
|
6.22%
16.08
|
2.43%
41.24
|
0.76%
132.17
|
| 1 |
7.47%
13.39
|
11.65%
8.58
|
9.09%
11.0
|
4.73%
21.16
|
1.84%
54.26
|
0.57%
173.91
|
| 2 |
2.84%
35.23
|
4.43%
22.59
|
3.45%
28.96
|
1.8%
55.69
|
0.7%
142.78
|
0.22%
457.67
|
| 3 |
0.72%
139.08
|
1.12%
89.16
|
0.87%
114.3
|
0.45%
219.83
|
0.18%
563.7
|
0.06%
1805.05
|
| 4 |
0.14%
732.06
|
0.21%
469.26
|
0.17%
601.68
|
0.09%
1157.41
|
0.03%
2967.36
|
0.01%
9523.81
|
| 5 |
0.02%
4807.69
|
0.03%
3086.42
|
0.03%
3952.57
|
0.01%
7633.59
|
0.01%
19607.84
|
0.0%
62500.0
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.55%
·
Adil:
181.69
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 53.23% | 46.77% |
| 1.5 | 17.69% | 82.31% |
| 2.5 | 4.18% | 95.82% |
| 3.5 | 0.76% | 99.24% |
| 4.5 | 0.11% | 99.89% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 78.99% | 21.01% |
| 1.5 | 46.21% | 53.79% |
| 2.5 | 20.64% | 79.36% |
| 3.5 | 7.34% | 92.66% |
| 4.5 | 2.15% | 97.85% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 1 | 22.80% | 4.39 |
| 2 | 26.45% | 3.78 |
| 3 | 20.45% | 4.89 |
| 4 | 11.86% | 8.43 |
| 5+ | 8.61% | 11.61 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5 59.07%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
17.50%
Seri
26.94%
Lawan Menang
55.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5
59.07%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
42.05%
Tidak
57.95%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 1.16% 86.19 | 4.14% 24.16 | 94.7% 1.06 |
| -1.5 | 5.3% 18.87 | — | 94.7% 1.06 |
| -1.0 | 5.3% 18.87 | 12.86% 7.77 | 81.84% 1.22 |
| -0.5 | 18.16% 5.51 | — | 81.84% 1.22 |
| 0 (PK) | 18.16% 5.51 | 25.42% 3.93 | 56.41% 1.77 |
| +0.5 | 43.59% 2.29 | — | 56.41% 1.77 |
| +1.0 | 43.59% 2.29 | 26.4% 3.79 | 30.01% 3.33 |
| +1.5 | 69.99% 1.43 | — | 30.01% 3.33 |
| +2.0 | 69.99% 1.43 | 17.44% 5.73 | 12.57% 7.96 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
