Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
34.2%
Odds adil
2.92
Seri
26.5%
Odds adil
3.77
Lawan Menang
39.3%
Odds adil
2.54
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 11.73%
Odds adil 8.52
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.92 | — | |
| Seri | 3.77 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.54 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 11.73% | 8.52 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 8.62% | 11.59 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 4 | 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 5 | 1-0 | 7.98% | 12.53 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 6.25% | 16.0 |
| 7 | 2-2 | 5.95% | 16.8 |
| 8 | 0-0 | 5.78% | 17.29 |
| 9 | 2-0 | 5.51% | 18.16 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 4.23% | 23.66 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.78%
17.29
|
8.5%
11.76
|
6.25%
16.0
|
3.06%
32.65
|
1.13%
88.86
|
0.33%
302.21
|
| 1 |
7.98%
12.53
|
11.73%
8.52
|
8.62%
11.59
|
4.23%
23.66
|
1.55%
64.39
|
0.46%
219.01
|
| 2 |
5.51%
18.16
|
8.1%
12.35
|
5.95%
16.8
|
2.92%
34.29
|
1.07%
93.32
|
0.32%
317.36
|
| 3 |
2.53%
39.47
|
3.72%
26.85
|
2.74%
36.53
|
1.34%
74.55
|
0.49%
202.84
|
0.14%
690.13
|
| 4 |
0.87%
114.4
|
1.28%
77.83
|
0.94%
105.89
|
0.46%
216.08
|
0.17%
587.89
|
0.05%
2000.0
|
| 5 |
0.24%
414.42
|
0.35%
282.01
|
0.26%
383.58
|
0.13%
783.09
|
0.05%
2132.2
|
0.01%
7246.38
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.7%
·
Adil:
142.45
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.84% | 25.16% |
| 1.5 | 40.12% | 59.88% |
| 2.5 | 16.17% | 83.83% |
| 3.5 | 5.15% | 94.85% |
| 4.5 | 1.35% | 98.65% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 77.01% | 22.99% |
| 1.5 | 43.21% | 56.79% |
| 2.5 | 18.37% | 81.63% |
| 3.5 | 6.19% | 93.81% |
| 4.5 | 1.72% | 98.28% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.78% | 17.29 |
| 1 | 16.49% | 6.07 |
| 2 | 23.49% | 4.26 |
| 3 | 22.32% | 4.48 |
| 4 | 15.90% | 6.29 |
| 5+ | 16.02% | 6.24 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 54.24%
Bawah/Under 2.5 45.76%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
34.20%
Seri
26.50%
Lawan Menang
39.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
54.24%
Bawah/Under 2.5
45.76%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
57.63%
Tidak
42.37%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.83% 17.15 | 10.32% 9.69 | 83.85% 1.19 |
| -1.5 | 16.15% 6.19 | — | 83.85% 1.19 |
| -1.0 | 16.15% 6.19 | 19.33% 5.17 | 64.52% 1.55 |
| -0.5 | 35.48% 2.82 | — | 64.52% 1.55 |
| 0 (PK) | 35.48% 2.82 | 25.0% 4.0 | 39.53% 2.53 |
| +0.5 | 60.47% 1.65 | — | 39.53% 2.53 |
| +1.0 | 60.47% 1.65 | 20.59% 4.86 | 18.94% 5.28 |
| +1.5 | 81.06% 1.23 | — | 18.94% 5.28 |
| +2.0 | 81.06% 1.23 | 11.71% 8.54 | 7.23% 13.83 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
