Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
30.76%
Odds adil
3.25
Seri
27.08%
Odds adil
3.69
Lawan Menang
42.16%
Odds adil
2.37
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.13%
Odds adil 8.25
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.25 | — | |
| Seri | 3.69 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.37 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.13% | 8.25 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 9.78% | 10.22 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 8.91% | 11.22 |
| 4 | 1-0 | 8.25% | 12.12 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 7.52% | 13.3 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 7.19% | 13.91 |
| 7 | 0-0 | 6.65% | 15.03 |
| 8 | 2-2 | 5.53% | 18.09 |
| 9 | 2-0 | 5.12% | 19.55 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 4.37% | 22.89 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.65%
15.03
|
9.78%
10.22
|
7.19%
13.91
|
3.52%
28.39
|
1.29%
77.24
|
0.38%
262.74
|
| 1 |
8.25%
12.12
|
12.13%
8.25
|
8.91%
11.22
|
4.37%
22.89
|
1.61%
62.3
|
0.47%
211.91
|
| 2 |
5.12%
19.55
|
7.52%
13.3
|
5.53%
18.09
|
2.71%
36.92
|
1.0%
100.47
|
0.29%
341.76
|
| 3 |
2.11%
47.3
|
3.11%
32.17
|
2.28%
43.78
|
1.12%
89.33
|
0.41%
243.07
|
0.12%
827.13
|
| 4 |
0.66%
152.58
|
0.96%
103.79
|
0.71%
141.2
|
0.35%
288.18
|
0.13%
784.31
|
0.04%
2666.67
|
| 5 |
0.16%
615.01
|
0.24%
418.59
|
0.18%
569.48
|
0.09%
1161.44
|
0.03%
3164.56
|
0.01%
10752.69
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.58%
·
Adil:
172.24
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71.06% | 28.94% |
| 1.5 | 35.18% | 64.82% |
| 2.5 | 12.93% | 87.07% |
| 3.5 | 3.73% | 96.27% |
| 4.5 | 0.88% | 99.12% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 77.01% | 22.99% |
| 1.5 | 43.21% | 56.79% |
| 2.5 | 18.37% | 81.63% |
| 3.5 | 6.19% | 93.81% |
| 4.5 | 1.72% | 98.28% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.65% | 15.03 |
| 1 | 18.03% | 5.55 |
| 2 | 24.43% | 4.09 |
| 3 | 22.07% | 4.53 |
| 4 | 14.95% | 6.69 |
| 5+ | 13.86% | 7.22 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 50.88%
Bawah/Under 2.5 49.12%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
30.76%
Seri
27.08%
Lawan Menang
42.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
50.88%
Bawah/Under 2.5
49.12%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
54.72%
Tidak
45.28%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.48% 22.33 | 9.02% 11.08 | 86.5% 1.16 |
| -1.5 | 13.5% 7.41 | — | 86.5% 1.16 |
| -1.0 | 13.5% 7.41 | 18.44% 5.42 | 68.06% 1.47 |
| -0.5 | 31.94% 3.13 | — | 68.06% 1.47 |
| 0 (PK) | 31.94% 3.13 | 25.57% 3.91 | 42.5% 2.35 |
| +0.5 | 57.5% 1.74 | — | 42.5% 2.35 |
| +1.0 | 57.5% 1.74 | 21.85% 4.58 | 20.64% 4.84 |
| +1.5 | 79.36% 1.26 | — | 20.64% 4.84 |
| +2.0 | 79.36% 1.26 | 12.68% 7.88 | 7.96% 12.56 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
