Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
31.89%
Odds adil
3.14
Seri
27.4%
Odds adil
3.65
Lawan Menang
40.71%
Odds adil
2.46
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.29%
Odds adil 8.14
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.14 | — | |
| Seri | 3.65 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.46 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.29% | 8.14 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 9.83% | 10.17 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 8.73% | 11.46 |
| 4 | 1-0 | 8.66% | 11.55 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 7.68% | 13.02 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 6.98% | 14.32 |
| 7 | 0-0 | 6.93% | 14.44 |
| 8 | 2-2 | 5.45% | 18.33 |
| 9 | 2-0 | 5.41% | 18.48 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 4.13% | 24.21 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.93%
14.44
|
9.83%
10.17
|
6.98%
14.32
|
3.3%
30.26
|
1.17%
85.24
|
0.33%
300.12
|
| 1 |
8.66%
11.55
|
12.29%
8.14
|
8.73%
11.46
|
4.13%
24.21
|
1.47%
68.19
|
0.42%
240.1
|
| 2 |
5.41%
18.48
|
7.68%
13.02
|
5.45%
18.33
|
2.58%
38.73
|
0.92%
109.1
|
0.26%
384.17
|
| 3 |
2.25%
44.36
|
3.2%
31.24
|
2.27%
44.0
|
1.08%
92.95
|
0.38%
261.85
|
0.11%
921.66
|
| 4 |
0.7%
141.94
|
1.0%
99.97
|
0.71%
140.81
|
0.34%
297.44
|
0.12%
838.22
|
0.03%
2949.85
|
| 5 |
0.18%
567.86
|
0.25%
399.84
|
0.18%
563.06
|
0.08%
1190.48
|
0.03%
3355.7
|
0.01%
11764.71
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.53%
·
Adil:
190.08
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71.35% | 28.65% |
| 1.5 | 35.54% | 64.46% |
| 2.5 | 13.15% | 86.85% |
| 3.5 | 3.83% | 96.17% |
| 4.5 | 0.91% | 99.09% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75.83% | 24.17% |
| 1.5 | 41.51% | 58.49% |
| 2.5 | 17.14% | 82.86% |
| 3.5 | 5.6% | 94.4% |
| 4.5 | 1.51% | 98.49% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.93% | 14.44 |
| 1 | 18.49% | 5.41 |
| 2 | 24.68% | 4.05 |
| 3 | 21.97% | 4.55 |
| 4 | 14.66% | 6.82 |
| 5+ | 13.27% | 7.54 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 49.9%
Bawah/Under 2.5 50.1%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
31.89%
Seri
27.40%
Lawan Menang
40.71%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
49.9%
Bawah/Under 2.5
50.1%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
54.1%
Tidak
45.9%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.74% 21.11 | 9.41% 10.62 | 85.85% 1.16 |
| -1.5 | 14.15% 7.07 | — | 85.85% 1.16 |
| -1.0 | 14.15% 7.07 | 18.98% 5.27 | 66.87% 1.5 |
| -0.5 | 33.13% 3.02 | — | 66.87% 1.5 |
| 0 (PK) | 33.13% 3.02 | 25.88% 3.86 | 40.99% 2.44 |
| +0.5 | 59.01% 1.69 | — | 40.99% 2.44 |
| +1.0 | 59.01% 1.69 | 21.56% 4.64 | 19.43% 5.15 |
| +1.5 | 80.57% 1.24 | — | 19.43% 5.15 |
| +2.0 | 80.57% 1.24 | 12.15% 8.23 | 7.29% 13.72 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
