Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
34.82%
Odds adil
2.87
Seri
27.33%
Odds adil
3.66
Lawan Menang
37.84%
Odds adil
2.64
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.25%
Odds adil 8.17
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.87 | — | |
| Seri | 3.66 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.64 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.25% | 8.17 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 9.21% | 10.86 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 8.94% | 11.19 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 8.39% | 11.92 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 8.14% | 12.28 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 6.72% | 14.88 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.31% | 15.86 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.94% | 16.82 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.58% | 17.93 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.83% | 26.11 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.72%
14.88
|
9.21%
10.86
|
6.31%
15.86
|
2.88%
34.72
|
0.99%
101.37
|
0.27%
369.96
|
| 1 |
8.94%
11.19
|
12.25%
8.17
|
8.39%
11.92
|
3.83%
26.11
|
1.31%
76.22
|
0.36%
278.16
|
| 2 |
5.94%
16.82
|
8.14%
12.28
|
5.58%
17.93
|
2.55%
39.26
|
0.87%
114.61
|
0.24%
418.24
|
| 3 |
2.64%
37.95
|
3.61%
27.7
|
2.47%
40.44
|
1.13%
88.55
|
0.39%
258.53
|
0.11%
943.4
|
| 4 |
0.88%
114.13
|
1.2%
83.31
|
0.82%
121.61
|
0.38%
266.31
|
0.13%
777.6
|
0.04%
2840.91
|
| 5 |
0.23%
429.0
|
0.32%
313.19
|
0.22%
457.25
|
0.1%
1001.0
|
0.03%
2923.98
|
0.01%
10638.3
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.54%
·
Adil:
186.39
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73.55% | 26.45% |
| 1.5 | 38.38% | 61.62% |
| 2.5 | 14.99% | 85.01% |
| 3.5 | 4.61% | 95.39% |
| 4.5 | 1.17% | 98.83% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.59% | 25.41% |
| 1.5 | 39.78% | 60.22% |
| 2.5 | 15.93% | 84.07% |
| 3.5 | 5.04% | 94.96% |
| 4.5 | 1.31% | 98.69% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.72% | 14.88 |
| 1 | 18.15% | 5.51 |
| 2 | 24.50% | 4.08 |
| 3 | 22.05% | 4.54 |
| 4 | 14.88% | 6.72 |
| 5+ | 13.71% | 7.29 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 50.64%
Bawah/Under 2.5 49.36%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
34.82%
Seri
27.33%
Lawan Menang
37.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
50.64%
Bawah/Under 2.5
49.36%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
54.86%
Tidak
45.14%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.72% 17.48 | 10.48% 9.54 | 83.79% 1.19 |
| -1.5 | 16.21% 6.17 | — | 83.79% 1.19 |
| -1.0 | 16.21% 6.17 | 19.97% 5.01 | 63.83% 1.57 |
| -0.5 | 36.17% 2.76 | — | 63.83% 1.57 |
| 0 (PK) | 36.17% 2.76 | 25.81% 3.87 | 38.02% 2.63 |
| +0.5 | 61.98% 1.61 | — | 38.02% 2.63 |
| +1.0 | 61.98% 1.61 | 20.57% 4.86 | 17.45% 5.73 |
| +1.5 | 82.55% 1.21 | — | 17.45% 5.73 |
| +2.0 | 82.55% 1.21 | 11.12% 8.99 | 6.32% 15.81 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
