Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
33.17%
Odds adil
3.01
Seri
27.89%
Odds adil
3.59
Lawan Menang
38.94%
Odds adil
2.57
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.53%
Odds adil 7.98
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.01 | — | |
| Seri | 3.59 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.57 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.53% | 7.98 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 10.03% | 9.97 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 9.28% | 10.77 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 8.46% | 11.82 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 7.83% | 12.77 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.77% | 14.77 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.8% | 17.23 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.29% | 18.91 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.81% | 26.27 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.43%
13.46
|
10.03%
9.97
|
6.77%
14.77
|
3.05%
32.83
|
1.03%
97.29
|
0.28%
360.36
|
| 1 |
9.28%
10.77
|
12.53%
7.98
|
8.46%
11.82
|
3.81%
26.27
|
1.28%
77.83
|
0.35%
288.27
|
| 2 |
5.8%
17.23
|
7.83%
12.77
|
5.29%
18.91
|
2.38%
42.03
|
0.8%
124.52
|
0.22%
461.25
|
| 3 |
2.42%
41.36
|
3.26%
30.64
|
2.2%
45.39
|
0.99%
100.87
|
0.33%
298.86
|
0.09%
1107.42
|
| 4 |
0.76%
132.35
|
1.02%
98.04
|
0.69%
145.24
|
0.31%
322.79
|
0.1%
956.02
|
0.03%
3546.1
|
| 5 |
0.19%
529.38
|
0.26%
392.16
|
0.17%
581.06
|
0.08%
1290.32
|
0.03%
3831.42
|
0.01%
14084.51
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.45%
·
Adil:
221.39
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71.35% | 28.65% |
| 1.5 | 35.54% | 64.46% |
| 2.5 | 13.15% | 86.85% |
| 3.5 | 3.83% | 96.17% |
| 4.5 | 0.91% | 99.09% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.08% | 25.92% |
| 1.5 | 39.08% | 60.92% |
| 2.5 | 15.46% | 84.54% |
| 3.5 | 4.82% | 95.18% |
| 4.5 | 1.24% | 98.76% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 1 | 19.31% | 5.18 |
| 2 | 25.10% | 3.98 |
| 3 | 21.76% | 4.60 |
| 4 | 14.14% | 7.07 |
| 5+ | 12.26% | 8.16 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 48.16%
Bawah/Under 2.5 51.84%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
33.17%
Seri
27.89%
Lawan Menang
38.94%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
48.16%
Bawah/Under 2.5
51.84%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
52.85%
Tidak
47.15%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.99% 20.06 | 9.84% 10.16 | 85.18% 1.17 |
| -1.5 | 14.82% 6.75 | — | 85.18% 1.17 |
| -1.0 | 14.82% 6.75 | 19.66% 5.09 | 65.52% 1.53 |
| -0.5 | 34.48% 2.9 | — | 65.52% 1.53 |
| 0 (PK) | 34.48% 2.9 | 26.35% 3.79 | 39.17% 2.55 |
| +0.5 | 60.83% 1.64 | — | 39.17% 2.55 |
| +1.0 | 60.83% 1.64 | 21.23% 4.71 | 17.93% 5.58 |
| +1.5 | 82.07% 1.22 | — | 17.93% 5.58 |
| +2.0 | 82.07% 1.22 | 11.48% 8.71 | 6.46% 15.48 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
