Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
33.1%
Odds adil
3.02
Seri
28.01%
Odds adil
3.57
Lawan Menang
38.89%
Odds adil
2.57
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.59%
Odds adil 7.94
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.02 | — | |
| Seri | 3.57 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.57 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.59% | 7.94 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 10.15% | 9.85 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 8.44% | 11.85 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 7.81% | 12.81 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 7.58% | 13.2 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.8% | 14.7 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.83% | 17.17 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.23% | 19.12 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.77% | 26.54 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.58%
13.2
|
10.15%
9.85
|
6.8%
14.7
|
3.04%
32.91
|
1.02%
98.23
|
0.27%
366.57
|
| 1 |
9.4%
10.64
|
12.59%
7.94
|
8.44%
11.85
|
3.77%
26.54
|
1.26%
79.22
|
0.34%
295.6
|
| 2 |
5.83%
17.17
|
7.81%
12.81
|
5.23%
19.12
|
2.34%
42.81
|
0.78%
127.78
|
0.21%
476.87
|
| 3 |
2.41%
41.53
|
3.23%
30.99
|
2.16%
46.26
|
0.97%
103.56
|
0.32%
309.12
|
0.09%
1153.4
|
| 4 |
0.75%
133.98
|
1.0%
99.98
|
0.67%
149.21
|
0.3%
334.11
|
0.1%
997.01
|
0.03%
3717.47
|
| 5 |
0.19%
540.25
|
0.25%
403.06
|
0.17%
601.68
|
0.07%
1347.71
|
0.02%
4016.06
|
0.01%
14925.37
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.43%
·
Adil:
230.04
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71.06% | 28.94% |
| 1.5 | 35.18% | 64.82% |
| 2.5 | 12.93% | 87.07% |
| 3.5 | 3.73% | 96.27% |
| 4.5 | 0.88% | 99.12% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73.82% | 26.18% |
| 1.5 | 38.73% | 61.27% |
| 2.5 | 15.22% | 84.78% |
| 3.5 | 4.72% | 95.28% |
| 4.5 | 1.2% | 98.8% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.58% | 13.20 |
| 1 | 19.55% | 5.12 |
| 2 | 25.22% | 3.97 |
| 3 | 21.69% | 4.61 |
| 4 | 13.99% | 7.15 |
| 5+ | 11.98% | 8.35 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 47.65%
Bawah/Under 2.5 52.35%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
33.10%
Seri
28.01%
Lawan Menang
38.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
47.65%
Bawah/Under 2.5
52.35%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
52.45%
Tidak
47.55%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.92% 20.31 | 9.8% 10.2 | 85.27% 1.17 |
| -1.5 | 14.73% 6.79 | — | 85.27% 1.17 |
| -1.0 | 14.73% 6.79 | 19.69% 5.08 | 65.59% 1.52 |
| -0.5 | 34.41% 2.91 | — | 65.59% 1.52 |
| 0 (PK) | 34.41% 2.91 | 26.47% 3.78 | 39.11% 2.56 |
| +0.5 | 60.89% 1.64 | — | 39.11% 2.56 |
| +1.0 | 60.89% 1.64 | 21.28% 4.7 | 17.84% 5.61 |
| +1.5 | 82.16% 1.22 | — | 17.84% 5.61 |
| +2.0 | 82.16% 1.22 | 11.45% 8.74 | 6.39% 15.65 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
