Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
38.49%
Odds adil
2.6
Seri
27.38%
Odds adil
3.65
Lawan Menang
34.13%
Odds adil
2.93
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.27%
Odds adil 8.15
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.6 | — | |
| Seri | 3.65 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.93 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.27% | 8.15 |
| 2 | 1-0 | 9.37% | 10.68 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 8.89% | 11.25 |
| 4 | 2-1 | 8.47% | 11.81 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.04% | 12.44 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 6.79% | 14.73 |
| 7 | 2-0 | 6.46% | 15.47 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 5.82% | 17.17 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.55% | 18.03 |
| 10 | 3-1 | 3.9% | 25.67 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.79%
14.73
|
8.89%
11.25
|
5.82%
17.17
|
2.54%
39.32
|
0.83%
120.05
|
0.22%
458.3
|
| 1 |
9.37%
10.68
|
12.27%
8.15
|
8.04%
12.44
|
3.51%
28.49
|
1.15%
86.99
|
0.3%
332.01
|
| 2 |
6.46%
15.47
|
8.47%
11.81
|
5.55%
18.03
|
2.42%
41.29
|
0.79%
126.09
|
0.21%
481.23
|
| 3 |
2.97%
33.63
|
3.9%
25.67
|
2.55%
39.2
|
1.11%
89.77
|
0.36%
274.12
|
0.1%
1046.03
|
| 4 |
1.03%
97.48
|
1.34%
74.42
|
0.88%
113.61
|
0.38%
260.21
|
0.13%
794.28
|
0.03%
3030.3
|
| 5 |
0.28%
353.23
|
0.37%
269.61
|
0.24%
411.69
|
0.11%
942.51
|
0.03%
2881.84
|
0.01%
10989.01
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.53%
·
Adil:
188.86
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.84% | 25.16% |
| 1.5 | 40.12% | 59.88% |
| 2.5 | 16.17% | 83.83% |
| 3.5 | 5.15% | 94.85% |
| 4.5 | 1.35% | 98.65% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73.02% | 26.98% |
| 1.5 | 37.67% | 62.33% |
| 2.5 | 14.52% | 85.48% |
| 3.5 | 4.41% | 95.59% |
| 4.5 | 1.1% | 98.9% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.79% | 14.73 |
| 1 | 18.26% | 5.48 |
| 2 | 24.56% | 4.07 |
| 3 | 22.02% | 4.54 |
| 4 | 14.81% | 6.75 |
| 5+ | 13.56% | 7.37 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 50.39%
Bawah/Under 2.5 49.61%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
38.49%
Seri
27.38%
Lawan Menang
34.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
50.39%
Bawah/Under 2.5
49.61%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
54.65%
Tidak
45.35%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 6.53% 15.32 | 11.35% 8.81 | 82.12% 1.22 |
| -1.5 | 17.88% 5.59 | — | 82.12% 1.22 |
| -1.0 | 17.88% 5.59 | 20.81% 4.81 | 61.31% 1.63 |
| -0.5 | 38.69% 2.58 | — | 61.31% 1.63 |
| 0 (PK) | 38.69% 2.58 | 25.86% 3.87 | 35.46% 2.82 |
| +0.5 | 64.54% 1.55 | — | 35.46% 2.82 |
| +1.0 | 64.54% 1.55 | 19.75% 5.06 | 15.71% 6.37 |
| +1.5 | 84.29% 1.19 | — | 15.71% 6.37 |
| +2.0 | 84.29% 1.19 | 10.23% 9.77 | 5.47% 18.27 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
