Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
33.19%
Odds adil
3.01
Seri
28.65%
Odds adil
3.49
Lawan Menang
38.16%
Odds adil
2.62
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.86%
Odds adil 7.77
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.01 | — | |
| Seri | 3.49 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.62 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.86% | 7.77 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 10.72% | 9.33 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 10.05% | 9.95 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 8.37% | 11.94 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.23% | 12.15 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.72% | 12.96 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.86% | 14.58 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 6.03% | 16.59 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.94% | 20.25 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.51% | 28.47 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.37%
11.94
|
10.72%
9.33
|
6.86%
14.58
|
2.93%
34.16
|
0.94%
106.76
|
0.24%
417.01
|
| 1 |
10.05%
9.95
|
12.86%
7.77
|
8.23%
12.15
|
3.51%
28.47
|
1.12%
88.97
|
0.29%
347.58
|
| 2 |
6.03%
16.59
|
7.72%
12.96
|
4.94%
20.25
|
2.11%
47.45
|
0.67%
148.28
|
0.17%
579.37
|
| 3 |
2.41%
41.46
|
3.09%
32.39
|
1.98%
50.61
|
0.84%
118.62
|
0.27%
370.64
|
0.07%
1447.18
|
| 4 |
0.72%
138.22
|
0.93%
107.98
|
0.59%
168.72
|
0.25%
395.41
|
0.08%
1236.09
|
0.02%
4830.92
|
| 5 |
0.17%
576.04
|
0.22%
449.84
|
0.14%
702.74
|
0.06%
1647.45
|
0.02%
5154.64
|
0.01%
20000.0
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.36%
·
Adil:
280.58
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 69.88% | 30.12% |
| 1.5 | 33.74% | 66.26% |
| 2.5 | 12.05% | 87.95% |
| 3.5 | 3.38% | 96.62% |
| 4.5 | 0.77% | 99.23% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 1.5 | 36.61% | 63.39% |
| 2.5 | 13.83% | 86.17% |
| 3.5 | 4.11% | 95.89% |
| 4.5 | 1.0% | 99.0% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.37% | 11.94 |
| 1 | 20.77% | 4.82 |
| 2 | 25.75% | 3.88 |
| 3 | 21.29% | 4.70 |
| 4 | 13.20% | 7.58 |
| 5+ | 10.62% | 9.42 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 45.1%
Bawah/Under 2.5 54.9%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
33.19%
Seri
28.65%
Lawan Menang
38.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
45.1%
Bawah/Under 2.5
54.9%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
50.45%
Tidak
49.55%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.74% 21.08 | 9.77% 10.23 | 85.48% 1.17 |
| -1.5 | 14.52% 6.89 | — | 85.48% 1.17 |
| -1.0 | 14.52% 6.89 | 20.02% 5.0 | 65.47% 1.53 |
| -0.5 | 34.53% 2.9 | — | 65.47% 1.53 |
| 0 (PK) | 34.53% 2.9 | 27.11% 3.69 | 38.36% 2.61 |
| +0.5 | 61.64% 1.62 | — | 38.36% 2.61 |
| +1.0 | 61.64% 1.62 | 21.35% 4.68 | 17.01% 5.88 |
| +1.5 | 82.99% 1.2 | — | 17.01% 5.88 |
| +2.0 | 82.99% 1.2 | 11.12% 8.99 | 5.89% 16.98 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
