Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
31.06%
Odds adil
3.22
Seri
29.1%
Odds adil
3.44
Lawan Menang
39.83%
Odds adil
2.51
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 13.01%
Odds adil 7.69
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.22 | — | |
| Seri | 3.44 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.51 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.01% | 7.69 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 11.61% | 8.61 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 10.16% | 9.84 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 9.07% | 11.02 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.32% | 12.01 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 7.28% | 13.73 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.69% | 17.58 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.66% | 21.45 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.55% | 28.16 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.07%
11.02
|
11.61%
8.61
|
7.43%
13.46
|
3.17%
31.54
|
1.01%
98.55
|
0.26%
384.91
|
| 1 |
10.16%
9.84
|
13.01%
7.69
|
8.32%
12.01
|
3.55%
28.16
|
1.14%
88.0
|
0.29%
343.76
|
| 2 |
5.69%
17.58
|
7.28%
13.73
|
4.66%
21.45
|
1.99%
50.28
|
0.64%
157.13
|
0.16%
613.87
|
| 3 |
2.12%
47.08
|
2.72%
36.78
|
1.74%
57.47
|
0.74%
134.68
|
0.24%
420.88
|
0.06%
1644.74
|
| 4 |
0.59%
168.12
|
0.76%
131.35
|
0.49%
205.25
|
0.21%
481.0
|
0.07%
1503.76
|
0.02%
5882.35
|
| 5 |
0.13%
750.75
|
0.17%
586.51
|
0.11%
916.59
|
0.05%
2145.92
|
0.01%
6711.41
|
0.0%
26315.79
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.31%
·
Adil:
319.69
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.37% | 32.63% |
| 1.5 | 30.83% | 69.17% |
| 2.5 | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| 3.5 | 2.72% | 97.28% |
| 4.5 | 0.59% | 99.41% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 1.5 | 36.61% | 63.39% |
| 2.5 | 13.83% | 86.17% |
| 3.5 | 4.11% | 95.89% |
| 4.5 | 1.0% | 99.0% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.07% | 11.02 |
| 1 | 21.77% | 4.59 |
| 2 | 26.13% | 3.83 |
| 3 | 20.90% | 4.78 |
| 4 | 12.54% | 7.97 |
| 5+ | 9.59% | 10.43 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 43.03%
Bawah/Under 2.5 56.97%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
31.06%
Seri
29.10%
Lawan Menang
39.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
43.03%
Bawah/Under 2.5
56.97%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
48.64%
Tidak
51.36%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.0% 25.03 | 8.95% 11.18 | 87.06% 1.15 |
| -1.5 | 12.94% 7.73 | — | 87.06% 1.15 |
| -1.0 | 12.94% 7.73 | 19.41% 5.15 | 67.65% 1.48 |
| -0.5 | 32.35% 3.09 | — | 67.65% 1.48 |
| 0 (PK) | 32.35% 3.09 | 27.55% 3.63 | 40.1% 2.49 |
| +0.5 | 59.9% 1.67 | — | 40.1% 2.49 |
| +1.0 | 59.9% 1.67 | 22.18% 4.51 | 17.92% 5.58 |
| +1.5 | 82.08% 1.22 | — | 17.92% 5.58 |
| +2.0 | 82.08% 1.22 | 11.68% 8.56 | 6.24% 16.03 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
