Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
28.91%
Odds adil
3.46
Seri
29.52%
Odds adil
3.39
Lawan Menang
41.56%
Odds adil
2.41
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 13.08%
Odds adil 7.64
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.46 | — | |
| Seri | 3.39 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.41 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.08% | 7.64 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 12.58% | 7.95 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 10.22% | 9.78 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.37% | 11.94 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 8.05% | 12.42 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 6.8% | 14.7 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.31% | 18.82 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.35% | 22.97 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.57% | 27.99 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.83%
10.18
|
12.58%
7.95
|
8.05%
12.42
|
3.43%
29.11
|
1.1%
90.98
|
0.28%
355.37
|
| 1 |
10.22%
9.78
|
13.08%
7.64
|
8.37%
11.94
|
3.57%
27.99
|
1.14%
87.48
|
0.29%
341.76
|
| 2 |
5.31%
18.82
|
6.8%
14.7
|
4.35%
22.97
|
1.86%
53.83
|
0.59%
168.24
|
0.15%
657.03
|
| 3 |
1.84%
54.28
|
2.36%
42.4
|
1.51%
66.26
|
0.64%
155.28
|
0.21%
485.2
|
0.05%
1893.94
|
| 4 |
0.48%
208.77
|
0.61%
163.08
|
0.39%
254.84
|
0.17%
597.37
|
0.05%
1865.67
|
0.01%
7299.27
|
| 5 |
0.1%
1004.02
|
0.13%
784.31
|
0.08%
1225.49
|
0.03%
2873.56
|
0.01%
9009.01
|
0.0%
34482.76
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.28%
·
Adil:
358.04
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64.65% | 35.35% |
| 1.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| 2.5 | 8.78% | 91.22% |
| 3.5 | 2.15% | 97.85% |
| 4.5 | 0.43% | 99.57% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 1.5 | 36.61% | 63.39% |
| 2.5 | 13.83% | 86.17% |
| 3.5 | 4.11% | 95.89% |
| 4.5 | 1.0% | 99.0% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 1 | 22.80% | 4.39 |
| 2 | 26.45% | 3.78 |
| 3 | 20.45% | 4.89 |
| 4 | 11.86% | 8.43 |
| 5+ | 8.61% | 11.61 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5 59.07%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
28.91%
Seri
29.52%
Lawan Menang
41.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5
59.07%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
46.68%
Tidak
53.32%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.31% 30.18 | 8.1% 12.34 | 88.58% 1.13 |
| -1.5 | 11.42% 8.76 | — | 88.58% 1.13 |
| -1.0 | 11.42% 8.76 | 18.71% 5.34 | 69.87% 1.43 |
| -0.5 | 30.13% 3.32 | — | 69.87% 1.43 |
| 0 (PK) | 30.13% 3.32 | 27.96% 3.58 | 41.91% 2.39 |
| +0.5 | 58.09% 1.72 | — | 41.91% 2.39 |
| +1.0 | 58.09% 1.72 | 23.03% 4.34 | 18.88% 5.3 |
| +1.5 | 81.12% 1.23 | — | 18.88% 5.3 |
| +2.0 | 81.12% 1.23 | 12.27% 8.15 | 6.61% 15.14 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
