Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
31.17%
Odds adil
3.21
Seri
29.7%
Odds adil
3.37
Lawan Menang
39.13%
Odds adil
2.56
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 13.18%
Odds adil 7.59
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.21 | — | |
| Seri | 3.37 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.56 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.18% | 7.59 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 12.09% | 8.27 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 10.71% | 9.34 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.34 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 7.43% | 13.45 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 7.18% | 13.93 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.84% | 17.13 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.42% | 22.64 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.32% | 30.1 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.83%
10.18
|
12.09%
8.27
|
7.43%
13.45
|
3.05%
32.81
|
0.94%
106.7
|
0.23%
433.65
|
| 1 |
10.71%
9.34
|
13.18%
7.59
|
8.1%
12.34
|
3.32%
30.1
|
1.02%
97.89
|
0.25%
397.93
|
| 2 |
5.84%
17.13
|
7.18%
13.93
|
4.42%
22.64
|
1.81%
55.23
|
0.56%
179.6
|
0.14%
729.93
|
| 3 |
2.12%
47.15
|
2.61%
38.33
|
1.6%
62.32
|
0.66%
152.0
|
0.2%
494.32
|
0.05%
2008.03
|
| 4 |
0.58%
173.01
|
0.71%
140.67
|
0.44%
228.73
|
0.18%
557.72
|
0.06%
1814.88
|
0.01%
7352.94
|
| 5 |
0.13%
793.65
|
0.15%
645.16
|
0.1%
1049.32
|
0.04%
2557.54
|
0.01%
8333.33
|
0.0%
33333.33
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.26%
·
Adil:
382.12
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 66.38% | 33.62% |
| 1.5 | 29.73% | 70.27% |
| 2.5 | 9.76% | 90.24% |
| 3.5 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 4.5 | 0.52% | 99.48% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70.77% | 29.23% |
| 1.5 | 34.82% | 65.18% |
| 2.5 | 12.71% | 87.29% |
| 3.5 | 3.64% | 96.36% |
| 4.5 | 0.86% | 99.14% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.83% | 10.18 |
| 1 | 22.80% | 4.39 |
| 2 | 26.45% | 3.78 |
| 3 | 20.45% | 4.89 |
| 4 | 11.86% | 8.43 |
| 5+ | 8.61% | 11.61 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5 59.07%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
31.17%
Seri
29.70%
Lawan Menang
39.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
40.93%
Bawah/Under 2.5
59.07%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
46.98%
Tidak
53.02%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.88% 25.8 | 8.93% 11.2 | 87.2% 1.15 |
| -1.5 | 12.8% 7.81 | — | 87.2% 1.15 |
| -1.0 | 12.8% 7.81 | 19.69% 5.08 | 67.51% 1.48 |
| -0.5 | 32.49% 3.08 | — | 67.51% 1.48 |
| 0 (PK) | 32.49% 3.08 | 28.14% 3.55 | 39.37% 2.54 |
| +0.5 | 60.63% 1.65 | — | 39.37% 2.54 |
| +1.0 | 60.63% 1.65 | 22.22% 4.5 | 17.16% 5.83 |
| +1.5 | 82.84% 1.21 | — | 17.16% 5.83 |
| +2.0 | 82.84% 1.21 | 11.37% 8.8 | 5.79% 17.27 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
