Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
29.89%
Odds adil
3.35
Seri
30.23%
Odds adil
3.31
Lawan Menang
39.87%
Odds adil
2.51
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 13.27%
Odds adil 7.54
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 3.35 | — | |
| Seri | 3.31 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.51 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.27% | 7.54 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 12.88% | 7.76 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 10.97% | 9.12 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 10.65% | 9.39 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 8.03% | 12.46 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 7.79% | 12.83 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 6.83% | 14.63 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.65% | 17.71 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.13% | 24.19 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.24% | 30.89 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.65%
9.39
|
12.88%
7.76
|
7.79%
12.83
|
3.14%
31.81
|
0.95%
105.17
|
0.23%
434.59
|
| 1 |
10.97%
9.12
|
13.27%
7.54
|
8.03%
12.46
|
3.24%
30.89
|
0.98%
102.1
|
0.24%
421.94
|
| 2 |
5.65%
17.71
|
6.83%
14.63
|
4.13%
24.19
|
1.67%
59.97
|
0.5%
198.26
|
0.12%
819.0
|
| 3 |
1.94%
51.58
|
2.35%
42.63
|
1.42%
70.46
|
0.57%
174.67
|
0.17%
577.37
|
0.04%
2386.63
|
| 4 |
0.5%
200.32
|
0.6%
165.54
|
0.37%
273.6
|
0.15%
678.43
|
0.04%
2242.15
|
0.01%
9259.26
|
| 5 |
0.1%
972.76
|
0.12%
803.86
|
0.08%
1328.02
|
0.03%
3289.47
|
0.01%
10869.57
|
0.0%
45454.55
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.23%
·
Adil:
443.85
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 1.5 | 27.53% | 72.47% |
| 2.5 | 8.59% | 91.41% |
| 3.5 | 2.09% | 97.91% |
| 4.5 | 0.41% | 99.59% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70.18% | 29.82% |
| 1.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 2.5 | 12.27% | 87.73% |
| 3.5 | 3.46% | 96.54% |
| 4.5 | 0.8% | 99.2% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.65% | 9.39 |
| 1 | 23.85% | 4.19 |
| 2 | 26.71% | 3.74 |
| 3 | 19.94% | 5.01 |
| 4 | 11.17% | 8.95 |
| 5+ | 7.69% | 13.01 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 38.8%
Bawah/Under 2.5 61.2%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
29.89%
Seri
30.23%
Lawan Menang
39.87%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
38.8%
Bawah/Under 2.5
61.2%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
45.13%
Tidak
54.87%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.41% 29.31 | 8.39% 11.92 | 88.2% 1.13 |
| -1.5 | 11.8% 8.47 | — | 88.2% 1.13 |
| -1.0 | 11.8% 8.47 | 19.37% 5.16 | 68.82% 1.45 |
| -0.5 | 31.18% 3.21 | — | 68.82% 1.45 |
| 0 (PK) | 31.18% 3.21 | 28.67% 3.49 | 40.16% 2.49 |
| +0.5 | 59.84% 1.67 | — | 40.16% 2.49 |
| +1.0 | 59.84% 1.67 | 22.76% 4.39 | 17.4% 5.75 |
| +1.5 | 82.6% 1.21 | — | 17.4% 5.75 |
| +2.0 | 82.6% 1.21 | 11.58% 8.64 | 5.82% 17.19 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
