Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
37.54%
Odds adil
2.66
Seri
29.55%
Odds adil
3.38
Lawan Menang
32.91%
Odds adil
3.04
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 13.16%
Odds adil 7.6
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.66 | — | |
| Seri | 3.38 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 3.04 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.16% | 7.6 |
| 2 | 1-0 | 11.54% | 8.67 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 10.87% | 9.2 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 9.54% | 10.49 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 7.96% | 12.56 |
| 6 | 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.34 |
| 7 | 2-0 | 6.98% | 14.32 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 6.2% | 16.14 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.54% | 22.04 |
| 10 | 3-1 | 3.21% | 31.15 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.54%
10.49
|
10.87%
9.2
|
6.2%
16.14
|
2.35%
42.46
|
0.67%
149.01
|
0.15%
653.59
|
| 1 |
11.54%
8.67
|
13.16%
7.6
|
7.5%
13.34
|
2.85%
35.1
|
0.81%
123.14
|
0.19%
539.96
|
| 2 |
6.98%
14.32
|
7.96%
12.56
|
4.54%
22.04
|
1.72%
58.01
|
0.49%
203.54
|
0.11%
892.86
|
| 3 |
2.82%
35.51
|
3.21%
31.15
|
1.83%
54.65
|
0.7%
143.82
|
0.2%
504.54
|
0.05%
2212.39
|
| 4 |
0.85%
117.4
|
0.97%
102.98
|
0.55%
180.67
|
0.21%
475.51
|
0.06%
1669.45
|
0.01%
7299.27
|
| 5 |
0.21%
485.2
|
0.24%
425.53
|
0.13%
746.83
|
0.05%
1964.64
|
0.01%
6896.55
|
0.0%
30303.03
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.27%
·
Adil:
367.51
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70.18% | 29.82% |
| 1.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 2.5 | 12.27% | 87.73% |
| 3.5 | 3.46% | 96.54% |
| 4.5 | 0.8% | 99.2% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 68.02% | 31.98% |
| 1.5 | 31.56% | 68.44% |
| 2.5 | 10.78% | 89.22% |
| 3.5 | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| 4.5 | 0.63% | 99.37% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.54% | 10.49 |
| 1 | 22.41% | 4.46 |
| 2 | 26.33% | 3.80 |
| 3 | 20.63% | 4.85 |
| 4 | 12.12% | 8.25 |
| 5+ | 8.97% | 11.15 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 41.72%
Bawah/Under 2.5 58.28%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
37.54%
Seri
29.55%
Lawan Menang
32.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
41.72%
Bawah/Under 2.5
58.28%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
47.74%
Tidak
52.26%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.37% 18.63 | 10.8% 9.26 | 83.83% 1.19 |
| -1.5 | 16.17% 6.19 | — | 83.83% 1.19 |
| -1.0 | 16.17% 6.19 | 21.55% 4.64 | 62.28% 1.61 |
| -0.5 | 37.72% 2.65 | — | 62.28% 1.61 |
| 0 (PK) | 37.72% 2.65 | 27.99% 3.57 | 34.29% 2.92 |
| +0.5 | 65.71% 1.52 | — | 34.29% 2.92 |
| +1.0 | 65.71% 1.52 | 20.31% 4.92 | 13.99% 7.15 |
| +1.5 | 86.01% 1.16 | — | 13.99% 7.15 |
| +2.0 | 86.01% 1.16 | 9.59% 10.43 | 4.4% 22.72 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
