Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
44.56%
Odds adil
2.24
Seri
29.06%
Odds adil
3.44
Lawan Menang
26.38%
Odds adil
3.79
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 0
Kebarangkalian 13.0%
Odds adil 7.69
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.24 | — | |
| Seri | 3.44 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 3.79 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.69 |
| 2 | 1-1 | 12.87% | 7.77 |
| 3 | 0-0 | 9.63% | 10.38 |
| 4 | 0-1 | 9.54% | 10.49 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 8.78% | 11.39 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 8.69% | 11.51 |
| 7 | 1-2 | 6.37% | 15.69 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 4.72% | 21.18 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.3% | 23.25 |
| 10 | 3-0 | 3.95% | 25.32 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.63%
10.38
|
9.54%
10.49
|
4.72%
21.18
|
1.56%
64.19
|
0.39%
259.4
|
0.08%
1310.62
|
| 1 |
13.0%
7.69
|
12.87%
7.77
|
6.37%
15.69
|
2.1%
47.55
|
0.52%
192.12
|
0.1%
969.93
|
| 2 |
8.78%
11.39
|
8.69%
11.51
|
4.3%
23.25
|
1.42%
70.45
|
0.35%
284.66
|
0.07%
1436.78
|
| 3 |
3.95%
25.32
|
3.91%
25.57
|
1.94%
51.66
|
0.64%
156.54
|
0.16%
632.51
|
0.03%
3194.89
|
| 4 |
1.33%
75.01
|
1.32%
75.77
|
0.65%
153.07
|
0.22%
463.82
|
0.05%
1872.66
|
0.01%
9433.96
|
| 5 |
0.36%
277.85
|
0.36%
280.66
|
0.18%
566.89
|
0.06%
1718.21
|
0.01%
6944.44
|
0.0%
34482.76
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.32%
·
Adil:
307.98
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.08% | 25.92% |
| 1.5 | 39.08% | 60.92% |
| 2.5 | 15.46% | 84.54% |
| 3.5 | 4.82% | 95.18% |
| 4.5 | 1.24% | 98.76% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 62.84% | 37.16% |
| 1.5 | 26.06% | 73.94% |
| 2.5 | 7.85% | 92.15% |
| 3.5 | 1.84% | 98.16% |
| 4.5 | 0.35% | 99.65% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.63% | 10.38 |
| 1 | 22.54% | 4.44 |
| 2 | 26.37% | 3.79 |
| 3 | 20.57% | 4.86 |
| 4 | 12.03% | 8.31 |
| 5+ | 8.85% | 11.30 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 41.45%
Bawah/Under 2.5 58.55%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
44.56%
Seri
29.06%
Lawan Menang
26.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
41.45%
Bawah/Under 2.5
58.55%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
46.55%
Tidak
53.45%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 7.76% 12.89 | 13.4% 7.46 | 78.84% 1.27 |
| -1.5 | 21.16% 4.73 | — | 78.84% 1.27 |
| -1.0 | 21.16% 4.73 | 23.86% 4.19 | 54.98% 1.82 |
| -0.5 | 45.02% 2.22 | — | 54.98% 1.82 |
| 0 (PK) | 45.02% 2.22 | 27.5% 3.64 | 27.47% 3.64 |
| +0.5 | 72.53% 1.38 | — | 27.47% 3.64 |
| +1.0 | 72.53% 1.38 | 17.5% 5.71 | 9.97% 10.03 |
| +1.5 | 90.03% 1.11 | — | 9.97% 10.03 |
| +2.0 | 90.03% 1.11 | 7.21% 13.87 | 2.77% 36.14 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
