Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
44.98%
Odds adil
2.22
Seri
29.27%
Odds adil
3.42
Lawan Menang
25.75%
Odds adil
3.88
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 0
Kebarangkalian 13.43%
Odds adil 7.44
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.22 | — | |
| Seri | 3.42 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 3.88 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 13.43% | 7.44 |
| 2 | 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 3 | 0-0 | 10.03% | 9.97 |
| 4 | 0-1 | 9.62% | 10.39 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 8.64% | 11.57 |
| 7 | 1-2 | 6.19% | 16.15 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 4.62% | 21.65 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.15% | 24.11 |
| 10 | 3-0 | 4.02% | 24.87 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.03%
9.97
|
9.62%
10.39
|
4.62%
21.65
|
1.48%
67.64
|
0.35%
281.85
|
0.07%
1468.43
|
| 1 |
13.43%
7.44
|
12.9%
7.75
|
6.19%
16.15
|
1.98%
50.48
|
0.48%
210.35
|
0.09%
1095.29
|
| 2 |
9.0%
11.11
|
8.64%
11.57
|
4.15%
24.11
|
1.33%
75.34
|
0.32%
313.97
|
0.06%
1633.99
|
| 3 |
4.02%
24.87
|
3.86%
25.91
|
1.85%
53.98
|
0.59%
168.66
|
0.14%
702.74
|
0.03%
3663.0
|
| 4 |
1.35%
74.24
|
1.29%
77.34
|
0.62%
161.13
|
0.2%
503.52
|
0.05%
2096.44
|
0.01%
10869.57
|
| 5 |
0.36%
277.01
|
0.35%
288.6
|
0.17%
601.32
|
0.05%
1879.7
|
0.01%
7812.5
|
0.0%
40000.0
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.31%
·
Adil:
326.16
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73.82% | 26.18% |
| 1.5 | 38.73% | 61.27% |
| 2.5 | 15.22% | 84.78% |
| 3.5 | 4.72% | 95.28% |
| 4.5 | 1.2% | 98.8% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 61.71% | 38.29% |
| 1.5 | 24.95% | 75.05% |
| 2.5 | 7.31% | 92.69% |
| 3.5 | 1.66% | 98.34% |
| 4.5 | 0.31% | 99.69% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.03% | 9.97 |
| 1 | 23.06% | 4.34 |
| 2 | 26.52% | 3.77 |
| 3 | 20.33% | 4.92 |
| 4 | 11.69% | 8.55 |
| 5+ | 8.38% | 11.94 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 40.4%
Bawah/Under 2.5 59.6%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
44.98%
Seri
29.27%
Lawan Menang
25.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
40.4%
Bawah/Under 2.5
59.6%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
45.55%
Tidak
54.45%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 7.79% 12.84 | 13.54% 7.39 | 78.67% 1.27 |
| -1.5 | 21.33% 4.69 | — | 78.67% 1.27 |
| -1.0 | 21.33% 4.69 | 24.14% 4.14 | 54.53% 1.83 |
| -0.5 | 45.47% 2.2 | — | 54.53% 1.83 |
| 0 (PK) | 45.47% 2.2 | 27.71% 3.61 | 26.82% 3.73 |
| +0.5 | 73.18% 1.37 | — | 26.82% 3.73 |
| +1.0 | 73.18% 1.37 | 17.29% 5.78 | 9.52% 10.5 |
| +1.5 | 90.48% 1.11 | — | 9.52% 10.5 |
| +2.0 | 90.48% 1.11 | 6.95% 14.39 | 2.58% 38.83 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
