Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
40.92%
Odds adil
2.44
Seri
32.83%
Odds adil
3.05
Lawan Menang
26.25%
Odds adil
3.81
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 0
Kebarangkalian 15.98%
Odds adil 6.26
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.44 | — | |
| Seri | 3.05 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 3.81 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 15.98% | 6.26 |
| 2 | 0-0 | 14.66% | 6.82 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 13.26% | 7.54 |
| 4 | 0-1 | 12.17% | 8.22 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 8.71% | 11.48 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.23% | 13.83 |
| 7 | 1-2 | 5.5% | 18.17 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 5.05% | 19.8 |
| 9 | 3-0 | 3.16% | 31.6 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 3.0% | 33.33 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.66%
6.82
|
12.17%
8.22
|
5.05%
19.8
|
1.4%
71.58
|
0.29%
344.95
|
0.05%
2079.0
|
| 1 |
15.98%
6.26
|
13.26%
7.54
|
5.5%
18.17
|
1.52%
65.66
|
0.32%
316.46
|
0.05%
1904.76
|
| 2 |
8.71%
11.48
|
7.23%
13.83
|
3.0%
33.33
|
0.83%
120.48
|
0.17%
580.72
|
0.03%
3496.5
|
| 3 |
3.16%
31.6
|
2.63%
38.07
|
1.09%
91.74
|
0.3%
331.56
|
0.06%
1597.44
|
0.01%
9615.38
|
| 4 |
0.86%
115.97
|
0.72%
139.72
|
0.3%
336.7
|
0.08%
1216.55
|
0.02%
5847.95
|
0.0%
35714.29
|
| 5 |
0.19%
531.91
|
0.16%
641.03
|
0.06%
1545.6
|
0.02%
5586.59
|
0.0%
27027.03
|
0.0%
166666.67
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.11%
·
Adil:
872.6
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 66.38% | 33.62% |
| 1.5 | 29.73% | 70.27% |
| 2.5 | 9.76% | 90.24% |
| 3.5 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 4.5 | 0.52% | 99.48% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 1.5 | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| 2.5 | 5.18% | 94.82% |
| 3.5 | 1.03% | 98.97% |
| 4.5 | 0.17% | 99.83% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.66% | 6.82 |
| 1 | 28.15% | 3.55 |
| 2 | 27.02% | 3.70 |
| 3 | 17.29% | 5.78 |
| 4 | 8.30% | 12.05 |
| 5+ | 4.57% | 21.87 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 30.17%
Bawah/Under 2.5 69.83%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
40.92%
Seri
32.83%
Lawan Menang
26.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
30.17%
Bawah/Under 2.5
69.83%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
37.43%
Tidak
62.57%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.24% 19.07 | 11.65% 8.58 | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.5 | 16.89% 5.92 | — | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.0 | 16.89% 5.92 | 24.38% 4.1 | 58.72% 1.7 |
| -0.5 | 41.28% 2.42 | — | 58.72% 1.7 |
| 0 (PK) | 41.28% 2.42 | 31.24% 3.2 | 27.48% 3.64 |
| +0.5 | 72.52% 1.38 | — | 27.48% 3.64 |
| +1.0 | 72.52% 1.38 | 18.57% 5.39 | 8.91% 11.22 |
| +1.5 | 91.09% 1.1 | — | 8.91% 11.22 |
| +2.0 | 91.09% 1.1 | 6.76% 14.8 | 2.15% 46.42 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
