Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
59.89%
Odds adil
1.67
Seri
24.78%
Odds adil
4.04
Lawan Menang
15.33%
Odds adil
6.52
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 0
Kebarangkalian 14.49%
Odds adil 6.9
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 1.67 | — | |
| Seri | 4.04 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 6.52 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 14.49% | 6.9 |
| 2 | 2-0 | 12.53% | 7.98 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 10.87% | 9.2 |
| 4 | 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 5 | 0-0 | 8.37% | 11.94 |
| 6 | 3-0 | 7.23% | 13.84 |
| 7 | 0-1 | 6.28% | 15.92 |
| 8 | 3-1 | 5.42% | 18.45 |
| 9 | 1-2 | 4.07% | 24.54 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 3.52% | 28.37 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.37%
11.94
|
6.28%
15.92
|
2.36%
42.46
|
0.59%
169.84
|
0.11%
905.8
|
0.02%
6024.1
|
| 1 |
14.49%
6.9
|
10.87%
9.2
|
4.07%
24.54
|
1.02%
98.16
|
0.19%
523.56
|
0.03%
3496.5
|
| 2 |
12.53%
7.98
|
9.4%
10.64
|
3.52%
28.37
|
0.88%
113.49
|
0.17%
605.33
|
0.02%
4032.26
|
| 3 |
7.23%
13.84
|
5.42%
18.45
|
2.03%
49.2
|
0.51%
196.81
|
0.1%
1049.32
|
0.01%
6993.01
|
| 4 |
3.13%
31.99
|
2.34%
42.66
|
0.88%
113.75
|
0.22%
454.96
|
0.04%
2427.18
|
0.01%
16129.03
|
| 5 |
1.08%
92.47
|
0.81%
123.29
|
0.3%
328.73
|
0.08%
1315.79
|
0.01%
6993.01
|
0.0%
47619.05
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.88%
·
Adil:
113.71
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82.27% | 17.73% |
| 1.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 2.5 | 25.07% | 74.93% |
| 3.5 | 9.77% | 90.23% |
| 4.5 | 3.16% | 96.84% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 52.76% | 47.24% |
| 1.5 | 17.34% | 82.66% |
| 2.5 | 4.05% | 95.95% |
| 3.5 | 0.73% | 99.27% |
| 4.5 | 0.11% | 99.89% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.37% | 11.94 |
| 1 | 20.77% | 4.82 |
| 2 | 25.75% | 3.88 |
| 3 | 21.29% | 4.70 |
| 4 | 13.20% | 7.58 |
| 5+ | 10.62% | 9.42 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 45.1%
Bawah/Under 2.5 54.9%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
59.89%
Seri
24.78%
Lawan Menang
15.33%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
45.1%
Bawah/Under 2.5
54.9%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
43.41%
Tidak
56.59%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 15.75% 6.35 | 18.91% 5.29 | 65.33% 1.53 |
| -1.5 | 34.67% 2.88 | — | 65.33% 1.53 |
| -1.0 | 34.67% 2.88 | 26.15% 3.82 | 39.18% 2.55 |
| -0.5 | 60.82% 1.64 | — | 39.18% 2.55 |
| 0 (PK) | 60.82% 1.64 | 23.32% 4.29 | 15.86% 6.3 |
| +0.5 | 84.14% 1.19 | — | 15.86% 6.3 |
| +1.0 | 84.14% 1.19 | 11.34% 8.82 | 4.53% 22.09 |
| +1.5 | 95.47% 1.05 | — | 4.53% 22.09 |
| +2.0 | 95.47% 1.05 | 3.55% 28.14 | 0.97% 102.87 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
