Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.03%
Fair Odds 2.7
Draw
19.38%
Fair Odds 5.16
Away Win
43.59%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
2 - 2
Probability 6.42% Fair Odds 15.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.7 —
Draw 5.16 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-2 6.42% 15.58
2 2-3 5.65% 17.71
3 3-2 5.28% 18.93
4 1-2 5.2% 19.24
5 2-1 4.86% 20.57
6 3-3 4.65% 21.51
7 1-3 4.57% 21.87
8 3-1 4.0% 24.98
9 1-1 3.94% 25.4
10 2-4 3.73% 26.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.6%
165.65
1.59%
62.74
2.1%
47.53
1.85%
54.02
1.22%
81.84
0.65%
155.01
1
1.49%
67.06
3.94%
25.4
5.2%
19.24
4.57%
21.87
3.02%
33.13
1.59%
62.75
2
1.84%
54.3
4.86%
20.57
6.42%
15.58
5.65%
17.71
3.73%
26.83
1.97%
50.81
3
1.52%
65.95
4.0%
24.98
5.28%
18.93
4.65%
21.51
3.07%
32.59
1.62%
61.72
4
0.94%
106.8
2.47%
40.46
3.26%
30.65
2.87%
34.83
1.9%
52.77
1.0%
99.95
5
0.46%
216.22
1.22%
81.9
1.61%
62.04
1.42%
70.5
0.94%
106.83
0.49%
202.31
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 8.99% · Fair: 11.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 91.54% 8.46%
1.5 70.64% 29.35%
2.5 44.84% 55.15%
3.5 23.6% 76.4%
4.5 10.48% 89.51%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 92.85% 7.14%
1.5 74.01% 25.98%
2.5 49.15% 50.84%
3.5 27.26% 72.73%
4.5 12.82% 87.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 0.60% 165.65
1 3.08% 32.42
2 7.88% 12.69
3 13.43% 7.45
4 17.15% 5.83
5+ 57.85% 1.73
Over 2.5 88.42% Under 2.5 11.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.03%
Draw 19.38%
Away Win 43.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 88.42%
Under 2.5 11.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 84.99%
No 15.01%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.35% 8.81 10.99% 9.1 77.64% 1.29
-1.5 22.34% 4.48 — 77.64% 1.29
-1.0 22.34% 4.48 15.68% 6.38 61.96% 1.61
-0.5 38.02% 2.63 — 61.96% 1.61
0 (PK) 38.02% 2.63 18.1% 5.53 43.86% 2.28
+0.5 56.12% 1.78 — 43.86% 2.28
+1.0 56.12% 1.78 16.76% 5.97 27.1% 3.69
+1.5 72.88% 1.37 — 27.1% 3.69
+2.0 72.88% 1.37 12.56% 7.96 14.55% 6.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.