Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.35%
Fair Odds 2.68
Draw
19.39%
Fair Odds 5.16
Away Win
43.25%
Fair Odds 2.31
Most Likely Score
2 - 2
Probability 6.42% Fair Odds 15.57

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.68 —
Draw 5.16 —
Away Win 2.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-2 6.42% 15.57
2 2-3 5.63% 17.77
3 3-2 5.31% 18.84
4 1-2 5.18% 19.31
5 2-1 4.88% 20.48
6 3-3 4.65% 21.49
7 1-3 4.54% 22.03
8 3-1 4.04% 24.78
9 1-1 3.94% 25.4
10 2-4 3.7% 27.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.6%
165.65
1.59%
62.98
2.09%
47.9
1.83%
54.63
1.2%
83.09
0.63%
157.98
1
1.5%
66.79
3.94%
25.4
5.18%
19.31
4.54%
22.03
2.98%
33.51
1.57%
63.7
2
1.86%
53.86
4.88%
20.48
6.42%
15.57
5.63%
17.77
3.7%
27.02
1.95%
51.37
3
1.53%
65.16
4.04%
24.78
5.31%
18.84
4.65%
21.49
3.06%
32.69
1.61%
62.14
4
0.95%
105.1
2.5%
39.96
3.29%
30.39
2.88%
34.66
1.9%
52.72
1.0%
100.23
5
0.47%
211.86
1.24%
80.57
1.63%
61.27
1.43%
69.89
0.94%
106.29
0.49%
202.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 8.97% · Fair: 11.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 91.62% 8.37%
1.5 70.85% 29.14%
2.5 45.1% 54.9%
3.5 23.81% 76.18%
4.5 10.61% 89.38%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 92.78% 7.21%
1.5 73.83% 26.16%
2.5 48.9% 51.09%
3.5 27.04% 72.95%
4.5 12.68% 87.31%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 0.60% 165.65
1 3.08% 32.42
2 7.88% 12.69
3 13.43% 7.45
4 17.15% 5.83
5+ 57.85% 1.73
Over 2.5 88.42% Under 2.5 11.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.35%
Draw 19.39%
Away Win 43.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 88.42%
Under 2.5 11.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 85.01%
No 14.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.53% 8.68 11.09% 9.02 77.37% 1.29
-1.5 22.61% 4.42 — 77.37% 1.29
-1.0 22.61% 4.42 15.75% 6.35 61.62% 1.62
-0.5 38.36% 2.61 — 61.62% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.36% 2.61 18.11% 5.52 43.52% 2.3
+0.5 56.47% 1.77 — 43.52% 2.3
+1.0 56.47% 1.77 16.7% 5.99 26.81% 3.73
+1.5 73.17% 1.37 — 26.81% 3.73
+2.0 73.17% 1.37 12.47% 8.02 14.34% 6.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.