Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.38%
Fair Odds 4.68
Draw
19.9%
Fair Odds 5.02
Away Win
58.72%
Fair Odds 1.7
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 8.63% Fair Odds 11.59

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.68 —
Draw 5.02 —
Away Win 1.7 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 8.63% 11.59
2 1-3 7.16% 13.96
3 1-1 6.93% 14.42
4 2-2 6.43% 15.55
5 0-2 5.79% 17.26
6 2-3 5.34% 18.74
7 2-1 5.17% 19.36
8 0-3 4.81% 20.8
9 0-1 4.65% 21.49
10 1-4 4.46% 22.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.87%
53.51
4.65%
21.49
5.79%
17.26
4.81%
20.8
2.99%
33.41
1.49%
67.09
1
2.78%
35.92
6.93%
14.42
8.63%
11.59
7.16%
13.96
4.46%
22.42
2.22%
45.03
2
2.07%
48.21
5.17%
19.36
6.43%
15.55
5.34%
18.74
3.32%
30.1
1.65%
60.44
3
1.03%
97.07
2.57%
38.98
3.19%
31.31
2.65%
37.72
1.65%
60.6
0.82%
121.68
4
0.38%
260.55
0.96%
104.65
1.19%
84.05
0.99%
101.28
0.61%
162.68
0.31%
326.69
5
0.11%
874.13
0.28%
351.12
0.35%
282.09
0.29%
339.79
0.18%
545.85
0.09%
1096.49
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 4.54% · Fair: 22.01
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.29%
1.5 71.06% 28.94%
2.5 45.36% 54.64%
3.5 24.02% 75.97%
4.5 10.74% 89.25%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 1.87% 53.51
1 7.44% 13.45
2 14.80% 6.76
3 19.64% 5.09
4 19.54% 5.12
5+ 36.72% 2.72
Over 2.5 75.89% Under 2.5 24.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.38%
Draw 19.90%
Away Win 58.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 75.89%
Under 2.5 24.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 71.04%
No 28.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.46% 28.87 6.17% 16.2 90.36% 1.11
-1.5 9.64% 10.38 — 90.36% 1.11
-1.0 9.64% 10.38 12.34% 8.11 78.02% 1.28
-0.5 21.98% 4.55 — 78.02% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.98% 4.55 18.6% 5.38 59.42% 1.68
+0.5 40.57% 2.46 — 59.42% 1.68
+1.0 40.57% 2.46 20.62% 4.85 38.8% 2.58
+1.5 61.19% 1.63 — 38.8% 2.58
+2.0 61.19% 1.63 17.24% 5.8 21.56% 4.64

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.