Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.61%
Fair Odds 2.24
Draw
19.34%
Fair Odds 5.17
Away Win
36.05%
Fair Odds 2.77
Most Likely Score
2 - 2
Probability 6.41% Fair Odds 15.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.24 —
Draw 5.17 —
Away Win 2.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-2 6.41% 15.61
2 3-2 5.7% 17.54
3 2-1 5.25% 19.05
4 2-3 5.21% 19.19
5 1-2 4.8% 20.84
6 3-1 4.67% 21.4
7 3-3 4.64% 21.57
8 1-1 3.93% 25.43
9 1-3 3.9% 25.62
10 4-2 3.81% 26.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.6%
165.65
1.47%
67.89
1.8%
55.65
1.46%
68.42
0.89%
112.16
0.44%
229.83
1
1.61%
62.04
3.93%
25.43
4.8%
20.84
3.9%
25.62
2.38%
42.01
1.16%
86.08
2
2.15%
46.47
5.25%
19.05
6.41%
15.61
5.21%
19.19
3.18%
31.47
1.55%
64.48
3
1.92%
52.21
4.67%
21.4
5.7%
17.54
4.64%
21.57
2.83%
35.35
1.38%
72.45
4
1.28%
78.22
3.12%
32.06
3.81%
26.28
3.1%
32.31
1.89%
52.97
0.92%
108.53
5
0.68%
146.48
1.67%
60.03
2.03%
49.21
1.65%
60.5
1.01%
99.19
0.49%
203.25
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 9.03% · Fair: 11.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 93.06% 6.93%
1.5 74.57% 25.42%
2.5 49.89% 50.1%
3.5 27.92% 72.07%
4.5 13.26% 86.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 91.28% 8.72%
1.5 70.01% 29.98%
2.5 44.07% 55.93%
3.5 22.96% 77.03%
4.5 10.09% 89.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 0.60% 165.65
1 3.08% 32.42
2 7.88% 12.69
3 13.43% 7.45
4 17.15% 5.83
5+ 57.85% 1.73
Over 2.5 88.42% Under 2.5 11.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.61%
Draw 19.34%
Away Win 36.05%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 88.42%
Under 2.5 11.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 84.95%
No 15.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.16% 6.6 12.83% 7.8 72.0% 1.39
-1.5 27.99% 3.57 — 72.0% 1.39
-1.0 27.99% 3.57 16.92% 5.91 55.07% 1.82
-0.5 44.91% 2.23 — 55.07% 1.82
0 (PK) 44.91% 2.23 18.06% 5.54 37.02% 2.7
+0.5 62.97% 1.59 — 37.02% 2.7
+1.0 62.97% 1.59 15.46% 6.47 21.55% 4.64
+1.5 78.43% 1.27 — 21.55% 4.64
+2.0 78.43% 1.27 10.71% 9.34 10.84% 9.22

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.