Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.63%
Fair Odds 2.19
Draw
19.29%
Fair Odds 5.18
Away Win
35.07%
Fair Odds 2.85
Most Likely Score
2 - 2
Probability 6.39% Fair Odds 15.65

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.19 —
Draw 5.18 —
Away Win 2.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-2 6.39% 15.65
2 3-2 5.75% 17.39
3 2-1 5.3% 18.86
4 2-3 5.13% 19.48
5 3-1 4.77% 20.95
6 1-2 4.73% 21.13
7 3-3 4.62% 21.64
8 1-1 3.93% 25.46
9 4-2 3.88% 25.76
10 1-3 3.8% 26.3
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.6%
165.65
1.45%
68.73
1.75%
57.04
1.41%
71.0
0.85%
117.84
0.41%
244.5
1
1.63%
61.35
3.93%
25.46
4.73%
21.13
3.8%
26.3
2.29%
43.65
1.1%
90.56
2
2.2%
45.44
5.3%
18.86
6.39%
15.65
5.13%
19.48
3.09%
32.33
1.49%
67.08
3
1.98%
50.49
4.77%
20.95
5.75%
17.39
4.62%
21.64
2.78%
35.92
1.34%
74.53
4
1.34%
74.81
3.22%
31.04
3.88%
25.76
3.12%
32.06
1.88%
53.22
0.91%
110.41
5
0.72%
138.52
1.74%
57.48
2.1%
47.7
1.68%
59.38
1.01%
98.55
0.49%
204.46
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 9.08% · Fair: 11.01
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 93.27% 6.72%
1.5 75.12% 24.87%
2.5 50.63% 49.36%
3.5 28.58% 71.41%
4.5 13.7% 86.29%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 91.01% 8.98%
1.5 69.37% 30.63%
2.5 43.29% 56.71%
3.5 22.33% 77.66%
4.5 9.71% 90.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 0.60% 165.65
1 3.08% 32.42
2 7.88% 12.69
3 13.43% 7.45
4 17.15% 5.83
5+ 57.85% 1.73
Over 2.5 88.41% Under 2.5 11.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.63%
Draw 19.29%
Away Win 35.07%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 88.41%
Under 2.5 11.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 84.89%
No 15.11%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.79% 6.33 13.09% 7.64 71.1% 1.41
-1.5 28.89% 3.46 — 71.1% 1.41
-1.0 28.89% 3.46 17.07% 5.86 54.02% 1.85
-0.5 45.96% 2.18 — 54.02% 1.85
0 (PK) 45.96% 2.18 18.01% 5.55 36.01% 2.78
+0.5 63.97% 1.56 — 36.01% 2.78
+1.0 63.97% 1.56 15.24% 6.56 20.77% 4.81
+1.5 79.21% 1.26 — 20.77% 4.81
+2.0 79.21% 1.26 10.43% 9.59 10.34% 9.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.