Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.64%
Fair Odds 4.62
Draw
20.8%
Fair Odds 4.81
Away Win
57.56%
Fair Odds 1.74
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.12% Fair Odds 10.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.62 —
Draw 4.81 —
Away Win 1.74 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.12% 10.97
2 1-1 7.83% 12.78
3 1-3 7.08% 14.12
4 0-2 6.51% 15.35
5 2-2 6.38% 15.67
6 0-1 5.59% 17.89
7 2-1 5.48% 18.25
8 0-3 5.06% 19.77
9 2-3 4.96% 20.17
10 1-4 4.13% 24.24
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.4%
41.68
5.59%
17.89
6.51%
15.35
5.06%
19.77
2.95%
33.94
1.37%
72.83
1
3.36%
29.77
7.83%
12.78
9.12%
10.97
7.08%
14.12
4.13%
24.24
1.92%
52.02
2
2.35%
42.53
5.48%
18.25
6.38%
15.67
4.96%
20.17
2.89%
34.63
1.35%
74.32
3
1.1%
91.13
2.56%
39.11
2.98%
33.57
2.31%
43.23
1.35%
74.21
0.63%
159.24
4
0.38%
260.35
0.89%
111.74
1.04%
95.92
0.81%
123.5
0.47%
212.04
0.22%
454.96
5
0.11%
930.23
0.25%
399.04
0.29%
342.58
0.23%
441.11
0.13%
757.0
0.06%
1626.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.47% · Fair: 28.83
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 90.27% 9.73%
1.5 67.6% 32.4%
2.5 41.19% 58.81%
3.5 20.67% 79.32%
4.5 8.73% 91.27%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.40% 41.68
1 8.95% 11.17
2 16.69% 5.99
3 20.75% 4.82
4 19.35% 5.17
5+ 31.86% 3.14
Over 2.5 71.96% Under 2.5 28.04%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.64%
Draw 20.80%
Away Win 57.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.96%
Under 2.5 28.04%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.01%
No 31.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.29% 30.41 6.21% 16.1 90.5% 1.11
-1.5 9.5% 10.53 — 90.5% 1.11
-1.0 9.5% 10.53 12.77% 7.83 77.72% 1.29
-0.5 22.27% 4.49 — 77.72% 1.29
0 (PK) 22.27% 4.49 19.46% 5.14 58.26% 1.72
+0.5 41.73% 2.4 — 58.26% 1.72
+1.0 41.73% 2.4 21.26% 4.7 37.01% 2.7
+1.5 62.99% 1.59 — 37.01% 2.7
+2.0 62.99% 1.59 17.2% 5.81 19.8% 5.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.