Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.07%
Fair Odds 4.98
Draw
20.68%
Fair Odds 4.84
Away Win
59.25%
Fair Odds 1.69
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.35% Fair Odds 10.7

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.98 —
Draw 4.84 —
Away Win 1.69 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.35% 10.7
2 1-1 8.06% 12.41
3 1-3 7.23% 13.83
4 0-2 7.14% 14.01
5 0-1 6.15% 16.25
6 2-2 6.12% 16.33
7 0-3 5.52% 18.12
8 2-1 5.28% 18.94
9 2-3 4.74% 21.12
10 1-4 4.19% 23.85
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.65%
37.71
6.15%
16.25
7.14%
14.01
5.52%
18.12
3.2%
31.24
1.49%
67.33
1
3.47%
28.79
8.06%
12.41
9.35%
10.7
7.23%
13.83
4.19%
23.85
1.95%
51.4
2
2.28%
43.95
5.28%
18.94
6.12%
16.33
4.74%
21.12
2.75%
36.41
1.27%
78.47
3
0.99%
100.65
2.31%
43.38
2.67%
37.4
2.07%
48.36
1.2%
83.38
0.56%
179.69
4
0.33%
307.31
0.75%
132.47
0.88%
114.19
0.68%
147.67
0.39%
254.58
0.18%
548.85
5
0.09%
1172.33
0.2%
505.56
0.23%
435.92
0.18%
563.7
0.1%
971.82
0.05%
2096.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.33% · Fair: 30.05
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 90.17% 9.83%
1.5 67.37% 32.63%
2.5 40.92% 59.07%
3.5 20.47% 79.53%
4.5 8.61% 91.39%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.65% 37.71
1 9.63% 10.39
2 17.47% 5.72
3 21.14% 4.73
4 19.18% 5.21
5+ 29.93% 3.34
Over 2.5 70.25% Under 2.5 29.75%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.07%
Draw 20.68%
Away Win 59.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.25%
Under 2.5 29.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.84%
No 34.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.78% 36.03 5.66% 17.67 91.56% 1.09
-1.5 8.43% 11.86 — 91.56% 1.09
-1.0 8.43% 11.86 12.22% 8.19 79.35% 1.26
-0.5 20.65% 4.84 — 79.35% 1.26
0 (PK) 20.65% 4.84 19.35% 5.17 60.0% 1.67
+0.5 40.0% 2.5 — 60.0% 1.67
+1.0 40.0% 2.5 21.64% 4.62 38.36% 2.61
+1.5 61.63% 1.62 — 38.36% 2.61
+2.0 61.63% 1.62 17.75% 5.64 20.62% 4.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.