Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
15.04%
Fair Odds 6.65
Draw
19.97%
Fair Odds 5.01
Away Win
64.99%
Fair Odds 1.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.77% Fair Odds 10.24

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 6.65 —
Draw 5.01 —
Away Win 1.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.77% 10.24
2 0-2 9.57% 10.44
3 1-1 8.53% 11.72
4 0-1 8.36% 11.96
5 1-3 7.46% 13.41
6 0-3 7.31% 13.68
7 2-2 4.98% 20.08
8 2-1 4.35% 22.99
9 1-4 4.27% 23.43
10 0-4 4.18% 23.9
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.65%
27.38
8.36%
11.96
9.57%
10.44
7.31%
13.68
4.18%
23.9
1.92%
52.18
1
3.72%
26.85
8.53%
11.72
9.77%
10.24
7.46%
13.41
4.27%
23.43
1.95%
51.16
2
1.9%
52.64
4.35%
22.99
4.98%
20.08
3.8%
26.3
2.18%
45.94
1.0%
100.31
3
0.65%
154.82
1.48%
67.61
1.69%
59.05
1.29%
77.36
0.74%
135.12
0.34%
294.99
4
0.16%
607.16
0.38%
265.11
0.43%
231.59
0.33%
303.4
0.19%
529.94
0.09%
1157.41
5
0.03%
2976.19
0.08%
1300.39
0.09%
1135.07
0.07%
1488.1
0.04%
2597.4
0.02%
5681.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.01% · Fair: 33.27
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 89.87% 10.13%
1.5 66.68% 33.32%
2.5 40.13% 59.87%
3.5 19.86% 80.14%
4.5 8.26% 91.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.65% 27.38
1 12.09% 8.27
2 20.00% 5.00
3 22.07% 4.53
4 18.26% 5.48
5+ 23.92% 4.18
Over 2.5 64.25% Under 2.5 35.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 15.04%
Draw 19.97%
Away Win 64.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.25%
Under 2.5 35.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.46%
No 42.54%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.44% 69.43 3.88% 25.74 94.67% 1.06
-1.5 5.32% 18.78 — 94.67% 1.06
-1.0 5.32% 18.78 10.14% 9.86 84.53% 1.18
-0.5 15.46% 6.47 — 84.53% 1.18
0 (PK) 15.46% 6.47 18.66% 5.36 65.87% 1.52
+0.5 34.13% 2.93 — 65.87% 1.52
+1.0 34.13% 2.93 22.76% 4.39 43.11% 2.32
+1.5 56.89% 1.76 — 43.11% 2.32
+2.0 56.89% 1.76 19.58% 5.11 23.53% 4.25

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.