Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.15%
Fair Odds 5.51
Draw
20.91%
Fair Odds 4.78
Away Win
60.94%
Fair Odds 1.64
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.71% Fair Odds 10.3

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.51 —
Draw 4.78 —
Away Win 1.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.71% 10.3
2 1-1 8.67% 11.53
3 0-2 8.37% 11.94
4 0-1 7.48% 13.38
5 1-3 7.25% 13.79
6 0-3 6.25% 16.0
7 2-2 5.63% 17.75
8 2-1 5.03% 19.88
9 2-3 4.21% 23.77
10 1-4 4.06% 24.62
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.34%
29.96
7.48%
13.38
8.37%
11.94
6.25%
16.0
3.5%
28.56
1.57%
63.76
1
3.87%
25.83
8.67%
11.53
9.71%
10.3
7.25%
13.79
4.06%
24.62
1.82%
54.96
2
2.25%
44.54
5.03%
19.88
5.63%
17.75
4.21%
23.77
2.36%
42.45
1.06%
94.77
3
0.87%
115.18
1.94%
51.42
2.18%
45.91
1.63%
61.49
0.91%
109.79
0.41%
245.1
4
0.25%
397.14
0.56%
177.3
0.63%
158.3
0.47%
212.0
0.26%
378.64
0.12%
845.31
5
0.06%
1712.33
0.13%
764.53
0.15%
682.59
0.11%
914.08
0.06%
1631.32
0.03%
3636.36
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.81% · Fair: 35.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 89.35% 10.65%
1.5 65.51% 34.49%
2.5 38.8% 61.2%
3.5 18.85% 81.14%
4.5 7.69% 92.31%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.34% 29.96
1 11.35% 8.81
2 19.29% 5.18
3 21.86% 4.57
4 18.58% 5.38
5+ 25.58% 3.91
Over 2.5 66.02% Under 2.5 33.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.15%
Draw 20.91%
Away Win 60.94%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.02%
Under 2.5 33.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.34%
No 38.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.12% 47.06 4.94% 20.23 92.93% 1.08
-1.5 7.07% 14.15 — 92.93% 1.08
-1.0 7.07% 14.15 11.62% 8.61 81.31% 1.23
-0.5 18.69% 5.35 — 81.31% 1.23
0 (PK) 18.69% 5.35 19.56% 5.11 61.75% 1.62
+0.5 38.25% 2.61 — 61.75% 1.62
+1.0 38.25% 2.61 22.43% 4.46 39.31% 2.54
+1.5 60.68% 1.65 — 39.31% 2.54
+2.0 60.68% 1.65 18.44% 5.42 20.88% 4.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.