Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.54%
Fair Odds 4.87
Draw
21.48%
Fair Odds 4.66
Away Win
57.99%
Fair Odds 1.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.58% Fair Odds 10.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.87 —
Draw 4.66 —
Away Win 1.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.58% 10.43
2 1-1 8.71% 11.48
3 0-2 7.61% 13.15
4 1-3 7.03% 14.23
5 0-1 6.91% 14.46
6 2-2 6.04% 16.56
7 0-3 5.58% 17.93
8 2-1 5.49% 18.22
9 2-3 4.43% 22.59
10 1-0 3.96% 25.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.14%
31.82
6.91%
14.46
7.61%
13.15
5.58%
17.93
3.07%
32.6
1.35%
74.09
1
3.96%
25.25
8.71%
11.48
9.58%
10.43
7.03%
14.23
3.87%
25.87
1.7%
58.8
2
2.49%
40.08
5.49%
18.22
6.04%
16.56
4.43%
22.59
2.44%
41.06
1.07%
93.33
3
1.05%
95.43
2.31%
43.38
2.54%
39.43
1.86%
53.78
1.02%
97.77
0.45%
222.22
4
0.33%
302.94
0.73%
137.7
0.8%
125.19
0.59%
170.71
0.32%
310.37
0.14%
705.22
5
0.08%
1201.92
0.18%
546.45
0.2%
496.77
0.15%
677.51
0.08%
1231.53
0.04%
2801.12
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.68% · Fair: 37.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 88.92% 11.08%
1.5 64.54% 35.46%
2.5 37.73% 62.27%
3.5 18.06% 81.94%
4.5 7.25% 92.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.14% 31.82
1 10.87% 9.20
2 18.81% 5.32
3 21.70% 4.61
4 18.77% 5.33
5+ 26.70% 3.75
Over 2.5 67.17% Under 2.5 32.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.54%
Draw 21.48%
Away Win 57.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.17%
Under 2.5 32.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.7%
No 36.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.73% 36.6 5.77% 17.35 91.5% 1.09
-1.5 8.5% 11.77 — 91.5% 1.09
-1.0 8.5% 11.77 12.66% 7.9 78.84% 1.27
-0.5 21.16% 4.73 — 78.84% 1.27
0 (PK) 21.16% 4.73 20.11% 4.97 58.73% 1.7
+0.5 41.27% 2.42 — 58.73% 1.7
+1.0 41.27% 2.42 22.1% 4.52 36.62% 2.73
+1.5 63.37% 1.58 — 36.62% 2.73
+2.0 63.37% 1.58 17.58% 5.69 19.05% 5.25

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.