Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.32%
Fair Odds 3.8
Draw
21.93%
Fair Odds 4.56
Away Win
51.75%
Fair Odds 1.93
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 8.87% Fair Odds 11.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.8 —
Draw 4.56 —
Away Win 1.93 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 8.87% 11.28
2 1-1 8.14% 12.29
3 2-2 6.83% 14.64
4 1-3 6.44% 15.52
5 2-1 6.26% 15.96
6 0-2 5.76% 17.37
7 0-1 5.28% 18.93
8 2-3 4.96% 20.15
9 0-3 4.18% 23.9
10 1-0 3.73% 26.79
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.42%
41.26
5.28%
18.93
5.76%
17.37
4.18%
23.9
2.28%
43.85
0.99%
100.57
1
3.73%
26.79
8.14%
12.29
8.87%
11.28
6.44%
15.52
3.51%
28.47
1.53%
65.3
2
2.87%
34.8
6.26%
15.96
6.83%
14.64
4.96%
20.15
2.7%
36.98
1.18%
84.81
3
1.48%
67.79
3.22%
31.1
3.51%
28.53
2.55%
39.26
1.39%
72.04
0.61%
165.21
4
0.57%
176.09
1.24%
80.77
1.35%
74.1
0.98%
101.97
0.53%
187.09
0.23%
429.18
5
0.17%
571.76
0.38%
262.26
0.42%
240.56
0.3%
331.13
0.16%
607.53
0.07%
1392.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.89% · Fair: 34.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 88.69% 11.3%
1.5 64.05% 35.95%
2.5 37.19% 62.81%
3.5 17.67% 82.33%
4.5 7.03% 92.96%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.42% 41.26
1 9.02% 11.09
2 16.77% 5.96
3 20.79% 4.81
4 19.34% 5.17
5+ 31.66% 3.16
Over 2.5 71.79% Under 2.5 28.21%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.32%
Draw 21.93%
Away Win 51.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.79%
Under 2.5 28.21%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.68%
No 30.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.68% 21.36 7.79% 12.84 87.53% 1.14
-1.5 12.47% 8.02 — 87.53% 1.14
-1.0 12.47% 8.02 14.67% 6.82 72.86% 1.37
-0.5 27.14% 3.69 — 72.86% 1.37
0 (PK) 27.14% 3.69 20.55% 4.87 52.31% 1.91
+0.5 47.68% 2.1 — 52.31% 1.91
+1.0 47.68% 2.1 20.76% 4.82 31.55% 3.17
+1.5 68.45% 1.46 — 31.55% 3.17
+2.0 68.45% 1.46 15.61% 6.41 15.95% 6.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.