Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.65%
Fair Odds 2.89
Draw
22.17%
Fair Odds 4.51
Away Win
43.18%
Fair Odds 2.32
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 7.79% Fair Odds 12.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.89 —
Draw 4.51 —
Away Win 2.32 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 7.79% 12.83
2 1-1 7.53% 13.28
3 2-2 7.29% 13.73
4 2-1 7.04% 14.21
5 1-3 5.38% 18.6
6 2-3 5.03% 19.89
7 3-2 4.54% 22.02
8 3-1 4.39% 22.79
9 0-2 4.17% 24.0
10 0-1 4.03% 24.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.94%
51.42
4.03%
24.84
4.17%
24.0
2.88%
34.78
1.49%
67.21
0.62%
162.34
1
3.64%
27.5
7.53%
13.28
7.79%
12.83
5.38%
18.6
2.78%
35.94
1.15%
86.81
2
3.4%
29.41
7.04%
14.21
7.29%
13.73
5.03%
19.89
2.6%
38.44
1.08%
92.85
3
2.12%
47.18
4.39%
22.79
4.54%
22.02
3.13%
31.91
1.62%
61.67
0.67%
148.96
4
0.99%
100.92
2.05%
48.75
2.12%
47.1
1.46%
68.26
0.76%
131.91
0.31%
318.67
5
0.37%
269.83
0.77%
130.34
0.79%
125.94
0.55%
182.52
0.28%
352.73
0.12%
851.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.13% · Fair: 31.96
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.59% 15.41%
1.5 55.77% 44.23%
2.5 28.82% 71.18%
3.5 12.02% 87.98%
4.5 4.17% 95.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 87.38% 12.62%
1.5 61.26% 38.74%
2.5 34.23% 65.77%
3.5 15.57% 84.43%
4.5 5.92% 94.08%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 1.94% 51.42
1 7.66% 13.05
2 15.10% 6.62
3 19.83% 5.04
4 19.53% 5.12
5+ 35.94% 2.78
Over 2.5 75.3% Under 2.5 24.7%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.65%
Draw 22.17%
Away Win 43.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 75.3%
Under 2.5 24.7%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 73.91%
No 26.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.17% 12.25 10.56% 9.47 81.27% 1.23
-1.5 18.72% 5.34 — 81.27% 1.23
-1.0 18.72% 5.34 17.01% 5.88 64.27% 1.56
-0.5 35.73% 2.8 — 64.27% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.73% 2.8 20.78% 4.81 43.49% 2.3
+0.5 56.51% 1.77 — 43.49% 2.3
+1.0 56.51% 1.77 18.82% 5.31 24.66% 4.05
+1.5 75.33% 1.33 — 24.66% 4.05
+2.0 75.33% 1.33 12.94% 7.73 11.73% 8.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.