Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
7.6%
Fair Odds 13.16
Draw
19.27%
Fair Odds 5.19
Away Win
73.13%
Fair Odds 1.37
Most Likely Score
0 - 2
Probability 16.4% Fair Odds 6.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 13.16 —
Draw 5.19 —
Away Win 1.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-2 16.4% 6.1
2 0-1 15.93% 6.28
3 0-3 11.26% 8.88
4 1-2 8.2% 12.19
5 1-1 7.96% 12.56
6 0-0 7.73% 12.94
7 0-4 5.8% 17.24
8 1-3 5.63% 17.76
9 1-0 3.87% 25.87
10 1-4 2.9% 34.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.73%
12.94
15.93%
6.28
16.4%
6.1
11.26%
8.88
5.8%
17.24
2.39%
41.84
1
3.87%
25.87
7.96%
12.56
8.2%
12.19
5.63%
17.76
2.9%
34.48
1.19%
83.69
2
0.97%
103.49
1.99%
50.24
2.05%
48.77
1.41%
71.03
0.73%
137.91
0.3%
334.78
3
0.16%
620.73
0.33%
301.39
0.34%
292.65
0.23%
426.26
0.12%
827.81
0.05%
2008.03
4
0.02%
4975.12
0.04%
2409.64
0.04%
2341.92
0.03%
3412.97
0.02%
6622.52
0.01%
16129.03
5
0.0%
50000.0
0.0%
24390.24
0.0%
23255.81
0.0%
34482.76
0.0%
66666.67
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.88% · Fair: 53.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 39.35% 60.65%
1.5 9.02% 90.98%
2.5 1.44% 98.56%
3.5 0.18% 99.82%
4.5 0.02% 99.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 87.25% 12.75%
1.5 61.0% 39.0%
2.5 33.95% 66.04%
3.5 15.39% 84.61%
4.5 5.82% 94.18%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.73% 12.94
1 19.79% 5.05
2 25.33% 3.95
3 21.62% 4.63
4 13.83% 7.23
5+ 11.70% 8.55
Over 2.5 47.15% Under 2.5 52.85%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 7.60%
Draw 19.27%
Away Win 73.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.15%
Under 2.5 52.85%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 34.33%
No 65.67%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.23% 426.81 1.34% 74.41 98.42% 1.02
-1.5 1.58% 63.37 — 98.42% 1.02
-1.0 1.58% 63.37 6.23% 16.06 92.19% 1.08
-0.5 7.81% 12.81 — 92.19% 1.08
0 (PK) 7.81% 12.81 17.99% 5.56 74.2% 1.35
+0.5 25.8% 3.88 — 74.2% 1.35
+1.0 25.8% 3.88 25.66% 3.9 48.54% 2.06
+1.5 51.46% 1.94 — 48.54% 2.06
+2.0 51.46% 1.94 22.81% 4.38 25.73% 3.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.