Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
17.25%
Fair Odds 5.8
Draw
22.19%
Fair Odds 4.51
Away Win
60.56%
Fair Odds 1.65
Most Likely Score
0 - 2
Probability 9.95% Fair Odds 10.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.8 —
Draw 4.51 —
Away Win 1.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-2 9.95% 10.05
2 1-2 9.95% 10.05
3 0-1 9.76% 10.25
4 1-1 9.76% 10.25
5 0-3 6.77% 14.77
6 1-3 6.77% 14.77
7 2-2 4.98% 20.09
8 2-1 4.88% 20.5
9 0-0 4.78% 20.91
10 1-0 4.78% 20.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
9.76%
10.25
9.95%
10.05
6.77%
14.77
3.45%
28.97
1.41%
71.0
1
4.78%
20.91
9.76%
10.25
9.95%
10.05
6.77%
14.77
3.45%
28.97
1.41%
71.0
2
2.39%
41.81
4.88%
20.5
4.98%
20.09
3.38%
29.55
1.73%
57.94
0.7%
142.01
3
0.8%
125.42
1.63%
61.49
1.66%
60.28
1.13%
88.64
0.58%
173.82
0.23%
426.08
4
0.2%
501.76
0.41%
245.94
0.41%
241.14
0.28%
354.61
0.14%
695.41
0.06%
1703.58
5
0.04%
2506.27
0.08%
1230.01
0.08%
1206.27
0.06%
1773.05
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
8547.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.86% · Fair: 53.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.21% 36.79%
1.5 26.42% 73.58%
2.5 8.03% 91.97%
3.5 1.9% 98.1%
4.5 0.37% 99.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 87.0% 13.0%
1.5 60.47% 39.53%
2.5 33.41% 66.59%
3.5 15.02% 84.98%
4.5 5.63% 94.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 17.25%
Draw 22.19%
Away Win 60.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.99%
No 45.01%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.66% 60.29 4.49% 22.25 93.85% 1.07
-1.5 6.15% 16.25 — 93.85% 1.07
-1.0 6.15% 16.25 11.63% 8.6 82.21% 1.22
-0.5 17.79% 5.62 — 82.21% 1.22
0 (PK) 17.79% 5.62 20.8% 4.81 61.41% 1.63
+0.5 38.59% 2.59 — 61.41% 1.63
+1.0 38.59% 2.59 23.73% 4.21 37.67% 2.65
+1.5 62.32% 1.6 — 37.67% 2.65
+2.0 62.32% 1.6 18.7% 5.35 18.97% 5.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.