Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.99%
Fair Odds 4.55
Draw
22.83%
Fair Odds 4.38
Away Win
55.18%
Fair Odds 1.81
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 9.75% Fair Odds 10.26

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.55 —
Draw 4.38 —
Away Win 1.81 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 9.75% 10.26
2 1-1 9.65% 10.36
3 0-2 7.99% 12.52
4 0-1 7.91% 12.64
5 1-3 6.56% 15.24
6 2-2 5.95% 16.82
7 2-1 5.89% 16.99
8 0-3 5.38% 18.59
9 1-0 4.78% 20.93
10 2-3 4.0% 24.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.92%
25.53
7.91%
12.64
7.99%
12.52
5.38%
18.59
2.72%
36.81
1.1%
91.1
1
4.78%
20.93
9.65%
10.36
9.75%
10.26
6.56%
15.24
3.31%
30.17
1.34%
74.68
2
2.91%
34.31
5.89%
16.99
5.95%
16.82
4.0%
24.98
2.02%
49.46
0.82%
122.41
3
1.19%
84.37
2.39%
41.77
2.42%
41.35
1.63%
61.42
0.82%
121.61
0.33%
301.02
4
0.36%
276.63
0.73%
136.95
0.74%
135.59
0.5%
201.37
0.25%
398.72
0.1%
987.17
5
0.09%
1133.79
0.18%
561.17
0.18%
555.56
0.12%
825.08
0.06%
1633.99
0.02%
4048.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.89% · Fair: 52.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.73% 13.27%
1.5 59.94% 40.06%
2.5 32.87% 67.13%
3.5 14.65% 85.35%
4.5 5.45% 94.55%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.92% 25.53
1 12.69% 7.88
2 20.56% 4.86
3 22.20% 4.50
4 17.98% 5.56
5+ 22.65% 4.41
Over 2.5 62.84% Under 2.5 37.16%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.99%
Draw 22.83%
Away Win 55.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.84%
Under 2.5 37.16%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.13%
No 38.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.87% 34.9 6.18% 16.18 90.95% 1.1
-1.5 9.05% 11.05 — 90.95% 1.1
-1.0 9.05% 11.05 13.65% 7.33 77.31% 1.29
-0.5 22.69% 4.41 — 77.31% 1.29
0 (PK) 22.69% 4.41 21.42% 4.67 55.89% 1.79
+0.5 44.11% 2.27 — 55.89% 1.79
+1.0 44.11% 2.27 22.6% 4.43 33.29% 3.0
+1.5 66.71% 1.5 — 33.29% 3.0
+2.0 66.71% 1.5 16.94% 5.9 16.35% 6.12

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.